Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: power coal industry chain: this week (2.14-2.18), the port price of power coal closed at 1000 yuan / ton on Friday. The overseas coal price fluctuated, and the coal price of origin fluctuated. The annual price is 964 yuan / ton, which is lower than that of last year, but the decline continues to converge. The port inventory continues to be destocked.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: demand weakened this week, and metallurgical coal decreased. The main coking coal at the port decreased by 11.66%, the price of imported coking coal was flat, and the import price difference converged significantly. The price of injected coal is the same as that before the festival. On the demand side, the coke price was flat and the operating rate of coke oven decreased continuously. Steel prices fell by 2.15% this week, and the operating rate of blast furnace fell. The inventory of coking coal, injection coal and coke in all links remained high, but it was de converted in the week.
Equity view: this week, the sector continued the momentum of last week, with a small increase of 1.91%, slightly outperforming the index. The metallurgical coal industry chain and performance exceeded the expected target increase. The driving force for the improvement of the index is mainly reflected in the valuation changes. There were some differences in the market during the week, or it is related to the response of coal enterprises to the guidance price limit. We are still optimistic about the industry. First, overseas prices are still strong, China’s coal prices are operating at a high level, and the performance level is expected to be maintained; Second, March and April are the start-up season, and the demand for coking coal may be boosted; Third, at present, most coal enterprises publish performance forecasts, rising by different ranges. From the perspective of dynamic P / E ratio, the safety margin of coal stocks is high. In the context of steady growth, it is suggested to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high flexibility and highly deterministic undervalued targets, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
