Zhou's views and investment suggestions
With the increase of penetration rate and the catalysis of Winter Olympic events, the ski track maintains high-speed growth. In 2020-21, the number of skiing passengers increased by nearly 100% year-on-year to 20.76 million, and the construction of supporting scenes kept pace with the growth of demand. By the beginning of 21, the national standard ski resorts and indoor and outdoor ski resorts had increased by 317% and 41% respectively compared with 15 years. Among them, the scale of ski equipment segment market has increased from 3.22 billion yuan to 11.75 billion yuan in the past five years, with a compound growth rate of 38.2%. Considering that the penetration rate of skiing in China is less than 1%, there is still much room for improvement compared with Switzerland, the United States, Japan and other countries. It is expected that the high growth rate will be predicted in the next five years.
Overseas brands dominate the high-end market; Domestic leading enterprises have sufficient layout and leading advantages. 1) Anta completed the overall layout of ski products through desant, Kelon and yamafen's Salomon, Archaeopteryx and other brands. Among them, the annual retail flow of desant 21 increased by nearly 70% year-on-year. 2) Li Ning launched the lining-snowboarding snowboarding series with skiing as the scene, making key breakthroughs in fabric and practicability. The average price of ski clothes exceeded 2500 yuan. 3) Bosideng, together with luxury sports brand Bogner, covers professional skiing, Skiing Vacation and urban life series, injecting new momentum into the long-term development of the group.
Investment suggestion: the downstream should pay attention to its own strength α、 Anta sports, Li Ning, Tebu international, etc. with leading ice and snow product layout and sufficient marketing related to Winter Olympic events. Upstream suggests paying attention to intelligent, technological and functional leading manufacturing and raw material suppliers, including Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) , Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) .
Data and announcement tracking
Market review: last week (February 13, 2022 ~ February 18, 2022), the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 rose 0.80%, 1.78% and 1.08% respectively, and the textile and garment sector rose 1.63%, of which the textile sector rose 2.23% and the garment sector rose 0.84%.
Raw material price: 328 grade cotton spot 22822 yuan / ton (- 0.12%, weekly rise and fall); Cotton Cotlook a135 7 cents / pound (- 0.91%); The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 1287 yuan / ton (7.42%).
Announcement of key companies: 1) Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) : Mr. Qiu Guanghe, the controlling shareholder of the company, transferred 5.3882 million shares (0.20%) in block trading. 2) Anhui Korrun Co.Ltd(300577) : the company launched the fifth phase of employee stock ownership plan. The stock source of this employee stock ownership plan is the shares repurchased by the company's special account for repurchase. The number of shares is 278000, accounting for about 0.12% of the current total share capital of the company. 3) Luthai Textile Co.Ltd(000726) : the company recently granted 5898000 shares to 348 incentive objects who met the grant conditions, with the grant price of 3.56 yuan / share. 4) Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) : Mr. Zhang Maoyi, the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company, plans to reduce no more than 15717700 shares of the company by means of centralized bidding and block trading, and the amount of reduction shall not exceed 4% of the total share capital of the company.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, rising labor costs in Vietnam and lower than expected price increase risk.
