Weekly view:
The first round of centralized land supply in Beijing recovered: on February 17, the first batch of centralized land supply in Beijing ended. Among the 18 plots, 1 was out of date, with a rate of 5.6%, about 10 percentage points lower than the last time; Among the land transactions, there were 8 bottom price transactions and 9 premium transactions, with an average premium rate of 4.8%, an increase of 3 percentage points over the last time. Land acquisition is still dominated by state-owned enterprises and central enterprises, but the proportion of land acquisition by local platforms has decreased and the proportion of brand real estate enterprises has increased; In addition, Xuhui, a private enterprise, acquired a parcel of land.
Real estate enterprises have increased their enthusiasm for land acquisition. First, land acquisition at the beginning of the year can be transformed into sales in the current year; In addition, the land price difference of the centralized supply of land is more than 20000 yuan / m2, with sufficient profit space; Moreover, as a first tier city, Beijing has high market demand and guaranteed sales collection. We expect that the land market will be divided in the future. The market in first tier cities and regions with strong sales in East and South China will continue to pick up, while the regions with poor sales will remain depressed.
Three places released centralized land supply information: 1) on February 17, Changsha announced that the first high-quality plots in 2022 will be promoted in a centralized manner, with a total of 36 plots; 2) On February 15, Hefei announced that it planned to sell 32 plots of land, starting on March 17, and the bidding rules were “bidding + bidding quality + lottery”. The overall starting unit price is about 14941 yuan / m2, and the three rounds of land supply last year was 13490 yuan / m2. 3) On February 15, Fuzhou announced that it would launch 20 plots, which were planned to be sold from March 16 to 17. The overall starting unit price was about 30506 yuan / m2, compared with 26022 yuan / m2 in the three rounds of land supply last year.
17 plots in four districts of Fuzhou have set a ceiling price, and the estimated real estate price difference after reaching the ceiling price is between 8400 yuan / ㎡ – 17100 yuan / ㎡, which reserves a profit space for real estate enterprises. We believe that in a market where supply is less than demand, improving the profit margin of real estate enterprises is the key to enhancing the willingness of real estate enterprises to acquire land.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (02.12-02.18): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 3.472 million m2, an increase of 68.6% over last week; In 2022, a total of 21.07 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 34.8%. Among them, 790000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 121.2% over the previous week. In 2022, a total of 4.554 million square meters were sold, a total year-on-year decrease of 23.6%; Second tier cities sold 1.466 million square meters, up 44.7% from last week. In 2022, a total of 10.399 million square meters were sold, down 15.8% year-on-year; The third tier cities sold 1.216 million square meters, an increase of 76.5% over last week. In 2022, a total of 6.054 million square meters were sold, a total year-on-year decrease of 56.4%.
The total supply of residential land is 3302802 square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of the planned land supply and demand of 360200 square meters, and the cumulative supply of residential land is 3050702 square meters.
In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 3226 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 2890 yuan / m2, an increase of 9.0% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 30.6%.
Land transaction (02.07-02.13): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 620000 square meters, with a cumulative transaction of 33.48 million square meters in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 70.7%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 1674 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 23.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 56.6%, and the overall premium rate was 1.5%. In 2022, the average floor price was 3569 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 24.2%, and the premium rate was 3.0%, a decrease of 13.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
