Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: the proportion of funds held by commercial banks continues to decline
Event: China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association released the top 100 list of public funds held by 21q4 consignment institutions. The top 100 fund distribution agencies jointly guaranteed 6.46 trillion yuan of stock + mixed public funds, an increase of 4.87% month on month. The top 100 fund distribution agencies jointly guaranteed 8.33 trillion yuan of non money market public funds, an increase of 8.75% month on month.
Commercial banks have the largest fund holdings. The competitive advantage of banks at the channel side is still relatively strong. Although the proportion of stocks + mixed public funds and non monetary funds of commercial banks decreased month on month, the scale of stocks + mixed public funds and non monetary funds of commercial banks remained the largest:
21q4, the holding scale of commercial banks’ equity + mixed public funds and non money market public funds were 3.79 trillion yuan and 4.16 trillion yuan respectively, up 4.12% and 5.77% respectively compared with the third quarter, accounting for 58.6% and 52.8% of the total co holding scale of the top 100, down 0.5pct and 1.4pct respectively month on month.
21q4, the holding scale of stock + mixed public funds of independent fund sales institutions and non money market public funds were 1.7 trillion yuan and 2.87 trillion yuan respectively, up 12% and 18.1% month on month respectively, accounting for 26.3% and 34.5% of the total co holding scale of the top 100, up 1.6pct and 2.8pct month on month respectively.
In 21q4, the holding scale of stock + mixed public funds of securities companies and non money market public funds were 0.94 trillion yuan and 1.02 trillion yuan respectively, basically unchanged month on month, accounting for 14.6% and 12.2% of the total co holding scale of the top 100, down 0.8pct and 1PCT respectively month on month.
The proportion of funds held by commercial banks continued to decline. In 21q4, “the scale of stocks held by commercial banks + mixed funds / the total scale of the top 100” and “the scale of non money market public funds held by commercial banks / the total scale of the top 100” were 58.6% and 52.8% respectively, down 0.5pct and 1.4pct month on month respectively, continuing the downward trend in 21q2. This is mainly because the holding scale of stock + mixed funds of independent fund sales institutions and that of non money market public funds increased rapidly month on month, with 12% and 18.1% respectively, seizing the share of banks and securities companies. Among them, Tiantian fund started its business in 21q4, and the holding scale of stock + mixed funds surpassed ICBC and entered the top three for the first time, At present, the top three stock + hybrid funds are China Merchants Bank, ant fund and Tiantian fund, with two independent fund sales institutions.
Investment strategy: on the whole, the scale of fund consignment and retention of urban rural commercial banks is small. Considering the resource investment, the gap with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks may increase in the future. From the perspective of commission fee income, we suggest paying attention to state-owned banks and joint-stock banks. Specifically:
From the perspective of fund holding scale, the top five holding scale of stock + mixed public funds and non money market public funds are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Bank Of China Limited(601988) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) respectively. The top five accounted for 62.2% of the total holding scale of banking institutions respectively. On the whole, the holding scale of funds was further concentrated.
From the perspective of the month on month growth rate of stock + mixed public funds and non money market public funds, the growth rate of China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) in big banks was faster, and the retention scale of stock + mixed public funds increased by 8.25% and 6.49% respectively, while the development trend of Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) and Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) fund consignment business in urban commercial banks was better.
In the environment of narrow interest margin of traditional lending business, wealth management, as an intermediary business, has obvious advantages such as small capital occupation, low risk level, strong customer stickiness and stable operating income. Many banks have made efforts to transform to wealth management. We continue to recommend state-owned banks and joint-stock banks with advantages in wealth management, such as Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) .
Risk warning: policy risk; The risk of macroeconomic recovery falling short of expectations; The global covid-19 epidemic continues to deteriorate.
