Baijiu week tracking: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) : according to the channel research, the 2022 contract has not yet been signed, and a new batch of funds is launched on Friday. Channel feedback is now about 30% of the annual task. The marketing plan is also unclear, and it is expected to launch relevant reform policies in the sugar and Wine Fair. At present, the delivery is still about 25% of the annual task, and the channel inventory is very low. Maotai 1935 has begun to collect dealer inventory information, and it is expected that the third batch of goods will be delivered in the near future (the first two batches are about 200 tons). The wholesale price of bulk bottles flying around the ring was stable at about 2780. Due to less delivery in Maotai in the past 15 years, the wholesale price increased by 270 yuan to 7720 yuan around the ring; Maotai 1935 fell back to about 1600. We expect that with the normal supply, the price of Maotai 1935 should be in the range of 1300-1500. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) : according to the channel research, at present, the delivery is 35-38% of the whole year, and the inventory is about one month. The price of puwu began to pick up, and the weekly price of most regions increased by 5 yuan to 970-980. Shanghai's mobile sales performed best in January. On the whole, it is expected that there will be a high single digit growth in mobile sales in January. Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) : according to the channel research, the delivery is about 40%. At present, the dealer's inventory is close to one month, and the wholesale price is stable at about 920 yuan. It is expected that with the rising cost of subsequent dealers, the price will increase steadily in the future.
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel adjustment is implemented, and management optimization is the big logic. According to the information on the official website of Yibin Municipal People's government, on February 18, Yibin municipal Party committee announced Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) personnel adjustment. Zeng Congqin served as the Secretary and chairman of the group Party committee, Zou Tao served as the deputy secretary and general manager of the group Party committee, and Jiang Wenge served as the deputy secretary, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company. The retention of the core team can ensure the consistency of strategy and continuous control of the company. When he was chairman of the stock company, he had a deep understanding and rich experience in the Baijiu market. Therefore, the personnel adjustment is expected to introduce channel reform measures after landing. At present, the main contradiction in the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) market is that the wholesale price is basically consistent with the ex factory price, and the channel profit is low. Therefore, compared with previous years, the company's requirements for price this year are different. In the past, it is necessary to ensure the favorable price results achieved in recent years to restore the confidence of dealers. Usually, Baijiu enterprises may have potential measures to control prices: 1) control shipments: reference companies in 2019 and 2020 will take control of goods as a major measure of price increase, which has played an obvious role in promoting the price. 2) Market inventory: the channel feedback company has relaxed the channel supervision since the second half of 2021. It is expected that the phenomenon of fleeing goods and low price sales will be strictly monitored and assessed in the future; 3) Market expectation management: it is possible to emphasize price control through dealer meetings to improve dealers' expectations of prices; 4) Reduction in areas greatly affected by the epidemic: for example, Henan may be reduced due to floods and the epidemic last year. We believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has the ability to achieve efficient channel control with the help of digital system, and the rating is expected to break through the 1000 yuan mark before the peak season of the Mid Autumn Festival
Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) : 27 sails can be expected, and Wusu is expected to continue to produce large quantities. (1) Carlsberg released the sailing 27 plan. In terms of product mix, we will strengthen the development of alcohol free beer and expand categories outside beer. At the same time, we will continue to strengthen high-end products and consolidate mainstream beer products. The group should continue to explore the market potential in China and achieve success in the market. (2) The new chairman of the company plans to take office. He joined Carlsberg as vice president of Asia Pacific region in July 2021. He has held many positions in Heineken and has rich experience in marketing, products, management and operation. (3) It is expected that the cost of raw materials will still rise in 2022, but the increase range is expected to narrow. In order to better carry out cost control and cost prediction, the company locked the price of important packaging material aluminum through hedging. At present, the glass bottle has fallen from a high level, and barley and wheat are in the rising channel.
Heineken: the performance recovered after the epidemic, and the Chinese market performed well. In 2021, Heineken group's revenue was 26.583 billion euros, an organic increase of 11.4% year-on-year; The net income was 21.941 billion euros, an organic increase of 12.2% year-on-year; The operating profit was 4.483 billion euros, an organic increase of 43.8% year-on-year; The net profit was 3.324 billion euros, an organic increase of 80.2% year-on-year. In 2021, the total sales volume of the company was 23.12 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; Among them, the sales volume of Heineken beer, the main brand, was 4.88 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; The sales volume of low alcohol and non-alcoholic products was 1.54 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Driven by Heineken silver, Heineken achieved double-digit strong growth in the Chinese market, nearly doubling compared with the level before the epidemic.
The overall situation of catering industry shows a benign recovery, and the policy is expected to further boost the recovery of catering industry. On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of human resources and social security and other departments jointly issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, reaffirming the core of "accurate prevention and control", and resolutely preventing and avoiding the two tendencies of "relaxed prevention and control" and "excessive prevention and control", which is expected to effectively improve the local catering business environment and stimulate catering consumption demand. The policy contains seven relief and support measures for the catering industry, aiming at difficult areas and small, medium and micro catering enterprises, reducing their operating costs and strengthening their subsidies. The policy is expected to enhance the anti risk ability of catering enterprises, smooth the operational risks of catering enterprises under the normalization of the epidemic, and further promote the recovery of the catering industry. According to the industrial research, the catering flow is still under pressure, but there has been a marginal improvement trend. The number of stores opened in the first ten days of February recovered well, and the consumption intensity of stores opened after the festival has decreased, but it is still higher than that before the festival. After Q1, with the end of the Winter Olympics / two sessions, the temperature has warmed up, the epidemic prevention and control has stabilized, and the catering consumption has recovered steadily.
Guilin Seamild Foods Co.Ltd(002956) : Hot oats grew steadily, while the competition for cold oats slowed down. By category, the terminal demand for cold oats is weak, some small and medium-sized manufacturers are cleared, the competition is slowing down, and the sales of hot oats are still growing steadily. Competitor Quaker has shifted its focus to online in recent years, and its offline share has shrunk, but its overall share is not much different from that of the company. In terms of channels, offline companies continue to develop convenience stores, circulation and other channels; Tiktok, Kwai, and other channels are growing faster. Last year, affected by the rise in commodity prices, the cost of raw materials such as freight, oats and packaging materials of the company increased slightly, and the whole is still under control. We believe that the company may raise the price of some products slightly this year according to the cost and terminal demand to hedge the cost side impact. The profit may be low in 2021, and the profit level is expected to increase in 2022.
Recommended combination in February: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) . The rise and fall in the month were Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) (3.39%), Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) (3.36%), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (3.08%), Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) (0.69%), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (2.43%), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (- 2.54%), and the portfolio yield was 1.74%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80%, and the portfolio rose 0.94% higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
Investment strategy: considering the adjustment of stocks at the beginning of the year, the current valuation of food and beverage leaders is reasonably low, and the layout is at the right time. During the Spring Festival, many surveys and feedback focused on Baijiu market, and the secondary and high-end areas were less affected by the epidemic. The catering industry began to show a marginal improvement trend, and the catering industry chain greatly affected by the epidemic with policy support is expected to accelerate the recovery. Baijiu mainly pushed the strong, strong and strong Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The second high-end companies mainly promoted the Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and the regional high-end high-end Chinese dragon makers, and suggested that Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) and sacrifice that the potential energy had already been built up. Food focuses on Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , China Resources beer, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , which are promoted by the dual logic of epidemic recovery and structural upgrading, and Yili, which is stable, and mustard, Juewei, Yuanzu and Ganyuan can also be considered.
Risk tips: the risk of global and Chinese epidemic spread, the risk of large outflow of foreign capital, sauce and wine inventory and policy.
