Report summary
Core view of this week: the electronics industry index rose by 2.38% this week. Of the 350 targets, 269 rose in the whole week, 114 rose by more than 3 points in the week, 59 rose by more than 5 points in the week, 17 rose by more than 10 points in the week, 73 fell in the whole week, 19 fell by more than 3 points in the week and 7 fell by more than 5 points in the week.
Two weeks have passed since the first month, and the market adjustment before and after the festival has entered a buffer period. The biggest change from February to 2022 is that the supply and demand tension of IC at each channel end is improving. Moreover, due to the serious hoarding at the channel end last year, the adjustment of industrial inventory needs a certain period after the change of supply and demand. At present, except PMIC and a few application ICs in customized fields, The overall supply is rapidly approaching the balance (there are still local tensions in some markets). Although the prices of some varieties of upstream metals and materials are still rising, it is not as simple for the original factory to transfer to the downstream as last year, so it is necessary to maintain the "recommended" rating of the industry.
In addition, according to the report of knometa research, a semiconductor research institution, compared with 2011, China's share of global wafer production capacity is only 9%. Over the past 10 years, this share has increased by 7 percentage points to 16%, and is expected to grow to 19% in 2024. This is calculated including TSMC, liandian Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the result of the production capacity of Chinese wafer factories. Therefore, the independent substitution of Chinese semiconductors is still the main line of sustainable growth in the future. Last year, the scale of semiconductor sales in China reached US $192.5 billion, with an annual growth rate of 27.1%, far exceeding that of other markets in the world.
In the direction of traditional consumer electronics, the downturn in the second half of the fourth quarter of last year is still continuing, and at the end of the first quarter, such as the release of Apple's cheap 5g model, it is bound to continue to cause huge competitive pressure on Android mobile phones in the corresponding field of two or three thousand yuan. Therefore, the downstream delivery and growth pressure of non Apple component factories are still large. This is also the reason why we have seen a large number of industry companies begin to expand into new energy extension fields such as power vehicles or energy storage in the last half of the year. We believe that this active extension will be more visible in the future. In this context, companies that can show structural growth in the first quarterly report will have relatively clear expectations.
Industry focus: the trendforce report pointed out that thanks to the expanded introduction of AMOLED models by apple, Samsung and other Chinese brands, the market penetration of AMOLED for mobile phone panel in 2021 was 42%. Trendforce predicts that in 2022, with the continuous investment in AMOLED production line expansion by various panel factories, the penetration rate is expected to rise to 46%.
Counterpoint, a research organization, released a report on February 16 local time, saying that in the fourth quarter of 2021, China's smartphone shipments fell by 11% year-on-year. But both apple and glory have brought surprises and continued the changing trend of the competitive landscape. Apple ranked first and reached the highest market share ever; Glory's market share has more than doubled from a year ago.
According to the statistics of the microgrid, the statistics of Taiwan International Semiconductor Research Institute of Obstetrics and International Institute of China showed that the output value of China's Taiwan semiconductor industry in 2021 exceeded 4 trillion yuan (the same below) for the first time, reaching 4 trillion and 80 billion yuan, an annual increase of 26.7%.
Key stocks and logic recommended this week: the targets of our key stock pool include: Shenzhen Fluence Technology Plc(300647) , Zhuhai Cosmx Battery Co.Ltd(688772) , Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Ningbo Kangqiang Electronics Co.Ltd(002119) , Tdg Holding Co.Ltd(600330) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Bomin Electronics Co.Ltd(603936) , Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) , Sihui Fuji Electronics Technology Co.Ltd(300852) .
Risk tips: (1) systemic risk caused by the unexpected decline of the market; (2) Focus on the uncertainty risk of promoting relevant matters of the company.
