Focus:
On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other 12 departments issued the notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, proposing to continue to guide the financial system to transfer profits to the real economy in 2022; We will strengthen the assessment and restraint of banks’ support for the development of manufacturing industry, promote large state-owned banks to optimize the allocation of economic capital, favor manufacturing enterprises, and promote the medium and long-term loans of manufacturing industry to continue to maintain rapid growth.
Industry and company dynamics
1) according to caijing.com, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) have successively announced that they plan to issue real estate project M & a theme bonds in the near future. So far, many banks have stated that they will provide real estate M & A financing support, with a total amount of about 60 billion yuan. 2) Since the Spring Festival, some urban commercial banks have reduced the down payment ratio of the first housing loan to 20%. 3) On February 17, Zhang Zhongning, deputy director of the general office of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, introduced the balance of agriculture related loans in 2021 and said that in the next step, banks and insurance institutions will be guided to make every effort to provide financial services to ensure food security and agricultural and rural production. 4) This week, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) issued 10 billion yuan of financial bonds, which are three-year fixed rate bonds with a coupon rate of 2.78%; Hua Xia Bank Co.Limited(600015) Mr. Zhang Jianhua resigned as president due to job change; Mr. Wu Jianwei resigned as vice president for personal reasons; Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) the board of directors deliberated and approved the proposal on starting the measures to stabilize the stock price of a shares.
Data tracking
This week, the A-share bank index fell by 1.09%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.17 percentage points, and the rise and fall of the sector ranked 26 / 30, among which Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) (+ 2.47%), Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) (+ 1.29%) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) (+ 0.53%) were among the top gainers. Open market operation: this week, the central bank conducted a total of 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase and 300 billion yuan MLF in the open market, with a total of 300 billion yuan reverse repurchase and 200 billion yuan MLF due,
The full caliber net withdrawal of 150 billion yuan in the open market. Next week (February 21 to February 25), the central bank’s open market will have 50 billion yuan of reverse repo due.
Shibor: the trend of inter-bank lending rate in Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) this week is generally upward. The overnight Shibor interest rate is up 30bp to 2.11%, and the seven-day Shibor interest rate is up 8bp to 2.10%.
Investment suggestions:
At the policy level this week, the regulation continued to guide the bank’s credit extension to the manufacturing industry. Agriculture related, inclusive and green policies are the focus of policy support. At the same time, the marginal loosening of policies in the real estate field also helps to improve market expectations and support the credit extension this year. Recently, the sector has made a slight correction. In the follow-up, the overall sector still has policy support, and it is expected that the performance cashing in the performance period of the annual report in March and April will continue to support the valuation repair of the sector. We maintain the “recommended” rating of the sector and continue to recommend at the individual stock level: China Merchants, Ping An, Societe Generale, Ningbo, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
Risk tips:
1) the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase, and the credit cost has increased significantly;
2) business differentiation of small and medium-sized banks, major business risks of individual banks, etc.
