This week (2022.2.14-2022.2.18), the building materials sector (SW) rose - 0.21%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, and the excess return was - 1.01%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -345 million yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
Recently, the government's attitude towards steady growth has continued to strengthen. The national development and Reform Commission has also continued to say that it is appropriate to carry out infrastructure investment in advance, accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. The follow-up implementation policy and promotion intensity of steady growth are expected to be further strengthened, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain after the festival is expected to be strengthened. With the implementation of medium-term structural credit, the counter cyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. Under the "double carbon" target, the supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectation and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement and consumer building materials are recommended.
1. Cement sector: the expectation of broad credit and stable growth continues to increase, and the sector is expected to start a boom and valuation upward cycle. The medium-term broad credit growth is expected to rise steadily. With the increasing downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. The issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated in the first half of the year, and the rising momentum of the infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the catalysis of macro policies and the verification of the stabilization and repair of start-up demand in spring. The recommended performance is highly deterministic. There are Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with bright spots in the extension of the medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration of northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: under the short-term weak demand, the price has dropped and the inventory has rebounded. In the follow-up, we need to continue to observe the toughness of demand. After the sharp drop in the price in the early stage, the social inventory has been at a very low level, and the expectation of downward price has also eased; The rapid decline in prices has worsened the profits of some production lines to a lower level, which is expected to accelerate their cold repair process and bring the expectation of improving the margin of supply and demand. The sustainability of subsequent price stabilization and recovery needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. From a medium-term perspective, the glass supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the boom center of the industry is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (the extension of industrial chains such as deep processing, electronics, medicine and photovoltaic glass has bright spots and high dividend rate), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (photovoltaic glass has been vigorously expanded and electronic glass has ushered in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
3. In terms of consumption of building materials, according to the short-term real estate data, the new construction and sales remain weak, and the completion remains resilient. In the follow-up, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected, and on the profit side, the pressure on the cost side is expected to ease with the price transmission, product structure adjustment and raw material price decline; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continuously track the marginal changes of policies. At the same time, several companies recently issued performance forecasts and made bad debt provision for overdue accounts receivable of real estate customers. It is expected that the provision is relatively sufficient, and the credit risk previously feared by the market has been released, Under the tone of maintaining stability, the real estate policy is expected to continue marginal easing. Recently, Heze and other places have reduced the proportion of down payment, released the warmth of real estate policy, and paid attention to the repair opportunities of building materials valuation in the post real estate cycle;
1) a growing leader in engineering building materials, especially the company that has established a small b customer development and multi category sales system in the sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range. It is recommended to recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) , etc.
2) the export chain still maintains a high outlook. Previously, the export enterprises were affected by the rising cost of raw materials and exchange rate fluctuations, the profitability was under pressure, and the stock price generally corrected. With the weakening of price transmission, raw material fluctuations and the easing of shipping, it is expected to enter the profit recovery period. It is suggested to pay attention to the PVC floor leader Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) with strong demand and continuous penetration of categories, And Fujian Supertech Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688398) , Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co.Ltd(603601) with high proportion of external demand and bright demand in downstream segments.
3) recommend Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) for revaluation varieties with stable profits and high cash flow.
[weekly data of industry segments]
1. Cement: the national cement market price this week was - 0.3% mom. The price drop areas are mainly Tianjin, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other local areas, with a week-on-week ratio of - 20-30 yuan / ton; The prices of clinker in Hunan, Guangxi, Chongqing and Xinjiang increased by + 30-50 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the price of clinker in the Yangtze River Delta increased by 30 yuan / ton again. In mid February, due to the repeated influence of off-season factors, rain and snow weather and epidemic situation in some areas, the downstream demand started slowly, the shipment of enterprises recovered only about 20%, and the cement price in some areas fluctuated and adjusted slightly. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered slowly, within expectations. On the one hand, the demand performance was weak in the fourth quarter of last year, the return of funds from the mixing plant was poor, and the enthusiasm for construction was low; On the other hand, the government has increased the investment in infrastructure, which reflects the lag in the pull of cement demand. The cement demand in the opening market is mainly continuous projects. In addition, the point recurrence of the epidemic also restricts the return of workers in some areas. According to comprehensive judgment, the downstream demand will increase significantly at the end of February and early March, and the market will fully recover in the middle and early March.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is 546 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of - 3 yuan / ton and a year-on-year increase of + 88 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 524 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 4 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin was 503 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 18 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 10 yuan / ton.
The cement inventory in the pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 52.9%, unchanged from last week; The cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin was 71.3%, with a week on week ratio of + 1%; Inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 71.1%, with a week on week ratio of + 1%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 74.7%, with a week-on-week increase of + 1%.
2. Glass: the average price of the original float white glass in China this week was 2398.6 yuan / ton, with a weekly comparison of + 228.2 yuan / ton and a year-on-year comparison of + 299 yuan / ton. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces across the country was 38.1 million boxes, with a week-on-week ratio of - 532 boxes and a year-on-year ratio of - 35.98 million boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 17 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 1.065 million tons. At this stage, the manufacturer's overall shipment is good, the medium and long-term reserve orders are OK, and the demand for wind power supports the supply and demand in the later stage or is still tight. Recently, the quotation of glass fiber yarn from manufacturers is temporarily stable. The manufacturer's external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 9100 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6400 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 7100-7200 yuan / ton, and 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9700 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. At present, two electronic level tank kiln lines are in normal production, with an annual output of about 110000 tons. In the early stage, line 2 has been discontinued. The main products are G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the manufacturer's electronic yarn G75 quotation has maintained stability. At present, the mainstream quotation is about 11000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China's electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market has gradually recovered. Now the mainstream quotation remains around 4.5 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is subject to the contract.
Risk tip: repeated macro policies and sharp depreciation of exchange rate.
