Talk every Monday: policies continue to protect the industry under the background of stable growth and risk prevention
From the perspective of policy, the environment of the real estate industry has further warmed up this week, and the down payment ratio of cities such as Heze, Shandong has been reduced to 20%. Under the guidance of the policy of “implementing policies for cities”, more accurate local regulation policies have helped further release reasonable demand; From a fundamental point of view, a batch of centralized land auction was completed in Beijing this week, and 17 of the 18 plots were sold. The overall premium rate was higher than that of the second and third batches in 2021, and the heat of the land market increased steadily.
On February 17, Zhongxin Jingwei and other media reported that Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Agricultural Bank Of China Limited(601288) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) four major banks in Heze City, Shandong Province lowered the down payment ratio of individual housing loans in the city. For “no house, no loan” buyers, the down payment ratio was reduced from the lowest 30% to 20%. In addition to Heze, some banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou also reduced the down payment ratio to 20% around the Spring Festival.
Since this adjustment meets the requirements of the central bank’s housing loan policy for non “purchase restriction” cities in 2016, there is room for further reference in some cities in the future. In 2016, the central bank and the CBRC informed that in principle, the minimum down payment ratio of 25% can be implemented for commercial personal housing loans for residents who purchase ordinary housing for the first time in cities that do not implement the “purchase restriction” measures, with a downward float of 5 percentage points. This time, some banks will reduce the down payment ratio, which will be jointly decided and adjusted by the local regulatory department and the financial functional department according to the principle of implementing policies according to the city.
We believe that behind this decision, on the one hand, it comes from the fundamentals of sufficient mortgage loans at the beginning of the year, and on the other hand, it also comes from the relative downturn of the housing market in some non “restricted” low-energy cities. Under reasonable policy requirements, reducing the down payment ratio can release some reasonable housing demand and adjust market expectations, so as to provide a good policy environment for the stable development of the real estate industry. In the future, within the scope permitted by the policy, the policy of reducing the proportion of down payment is expected to follow up in some cities, so as to release demand and boost the real estate market.
On February 17, Beijing completed the first batch of centralized land supply and land auction. Among the 18 plots, 17 plots were sold, with a total transaction price of 48.023 billion, an overall premium rate of 4.5% and a flow auction rate of 6%. The market heat has rebounded compared with the second and third batches in 2021.
The land auction mainly reflects the following characteristics: the flow auction rate decreases and the premium rate increases: a total of 17 plots in the first batch of land auction in Beijing have been successfully sold, and the flow auction rate is 6%. Compared with the 60% and 17% flow auction rates of the second and third batches in 2021, the land flow auction rate shows a downward trend; The transaction premium rate is 4.5%. Compared with the 3.6% and 1% premium rate of the second and third batches of land supply in 2021, the current market land market has warmed marginally month on month, sending a positive signal to the market. Differentiation is still the norm, and high-quality plots are hot: of the 17 plots in this local auction, 9 were sold at the base price, 2 were sold at a low premium, and 6 were sold at a premium rate of more than 5%. Among them, two high-quality plots triggered bidding by many real estate enterprises, with a premium rate of 15%; State owned central enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition: this time, China’s central enterprises are still the main force in land acquisition, and only one of the 17 plots was delisted by Xuhui, which is the land acquisition of real estate enterprises with pure private enterprise background. Participating in the auction of real estate enterprises, zhonglvcheng took three plots of land alone, with a total amount of 9.84 billion yuan. The real estate enterprises with the background of large state-owned and central enterprises such as China Resources, China shipping, Jindi, poly and China construction development all gained.
Data tracking (February 7-february 13): some data base during the Spring Festival is low, and the month on month ratio is not included in the statistics
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is + 63pct and – 31pct in one week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities + 171pct, – 33pct, second tier cities – 29pct, – 67pct, third tier cities + 121pct and + 8pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was + 35PCT year-on-year in a single week, and the cumulative year-on-year was – 36pct.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is – 4pct year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 43pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 73pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 3.32%.
City Market: the month on month base is too low. Month on month statistics are not made this week.
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default, and the policy is beyond the expected regulation.
