Key investment points:
In January, the lithium battery sector index was significantly weaker than the CSI 300 index. In January 2022, the lithium battery index fell by 10.23% and the new energy vehicle index fell by 10.20%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 5.77% in the same period. The lithium battery index was significantly weaker than the CSI 300 index.
In mid January, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) car sales doubled more than expected. In January 2022, the sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) cars were 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 141%, down 18.55% from December, and the monthly sales accounted for 17.03% in January. The sales continued to reach a new high in the same period, mainly related to the introduction of stable growth policies by local governments, the significant improvement of consumer recognition and the alleviation of core shortage. In December 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery installed capacity was 26.22gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 102.43%, of which ternary materials accounted for 42.18%; Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) and Zhongchuang Chuang ranked among the top three.
Upstream raw material prices mainly rose. As of February 18, 2022, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 445000 yuan / ton, up 57.80% from the beginning of January, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term; The price of lithium hydroxide was 371900 yuan / ton, up 61.76% from the beginning of January. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. The price of electrolytic cobalt was 537500 yuan / ton, up 7.95% from the beginning of January, with a short-term overall high shock; The price of lithium cobaltate was 539500 yuan / ton, up 26.05% from the beginning of January; The price of Sanyuan 523 cathode material was 330000 yuan / ton, up 29.41% from the beginning of January; The price of lithium iron phosphate is 145000 yuan / ton, up 35.51% from the beginning of January. It is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 575000 yuan / ton, up 2.68% from the beginning of January, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; The electrolyte is 120000 yuan / ton, which is flat compared with the beginning of January, and is expected to be dominated by high-level shocks.
Maintain the investment rating of “stronger than the market” in the industry. As of February 18, 2022: the valuations of lithium battery and gem were 65.92 times and 44.19 times respectively. Combined with the development prospect of the industry, the rating of “stronger than the big market” of the industry was maintained. In January, the overall performance of lithium battery sector continued to be weaker than that of major indexes, mainly due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the relatively high valuation of the sector and the superposition of systemic risks. Combined with the industry dynamics outside China, the price trend of subdivided fields, monthly sales volume and industry development trend, the industry boom continues to rise on the whole. Considering the changes of relevant contents before and after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, the current industry valuation level and the recent correction range, the short-term sector may rebound, but on the whole, it still needs to be cautious and should not be overly optimistic. In the medium and long term, the development prospect of new energy vehicle industry outside China is determined, and the sector deserves special attention. At the same time, it is expected that the performance and trend of individual stocks will also be differentiated. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of leaders in subdivided fields.
Risk warning: the implementation of industrial policies is less than expected; The prices in the subdivided fields fluctuate sharply; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Industry competition intensifies; The progress of lithium extraction from Salt Lake exceeded expectations; Systemic risk.
