Investment summary:
Market review:
As of the closing on February 18, the coal sector rose 1.89% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 1.08%, and the coal sector rose 0.81pct ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the weekly increase of coal sector ranks 16th among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 11.13% year to date, ranking first among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The implementation of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, and the weakening of coal price: last week, the relevant departments strengthened the coal price limit, strengthened the measures of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, and interviewed some enterprises with falsely high coal prices. This week, the pit mouth and port prices were generally reduced to near the price limit requirements, the phenomenon of waiting and waiting for downstream demand increased, the recent low-temperature weather in the country continued, and the coal consumption of power plants rebounded, In the later stage, with the gradual release of non power plant demand, the year-on-year low inventory still supports the operation of coal price at the upper limit of the price limit range. As of February 18, the coal price of Qinhuangdao port (q5500) was 1000 yuan / ton, down 10 yuan / ton per week. We are concerned about the resumption and increase of coal production after the festival. Recently, coal enterprises have successively issued announcements of substantial pre increase in performance, Pay attention to the repair trend of Industry Valuation under the background of large increase in performance and transformation of coal enterprises to new energy and coal chemical industry;
The output of steel mills gradually rebounded, and the demand for double coke continued to grow: the operating rate of blast furnaces nationwide rebounded this week, while the coke inventory of steel mills declined. After the second round of coke increase and decrease in the early stage, the profit of coke enterprises narrowed and suppressed the coke supply. The factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was flat at 2800 yuan / ton, and the price of coking coal fell this week, The price of Shanxi produced main coking coal in Jingtang Port fell 330 yuan / ton to 2500 yuan / ton; With the weak coke price and the significant tightening of iron ore supervision, the profits of steel mills continue to rise, and the resumption of production of steel mills is expected to be strong after the end of the limited production in the Winter Olympic Games and heating season. Under this background, the demand for double coke is expected to grow continuously and the price is expected to strengthen significantly;
Market impact: the power coal price is weakly affected by the policy, and the pre increase of the performance of coal enterprises and the expectation of transformation are expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; With the gradual weakening of crude steel production restriction, the high profit brought by weak ore price is expected to prompt the steel plant to resume production quickly. Under this background, the price of coal coke is expected to strengthen;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk warning: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes
