Industry core view:
Last week (February 14-february 18, 2022), the Shenwan mechanical equipment industry index rose by 2.4%, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.1%, and the machinery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.3pct. Shenwan 31 primary industries and 20 sectors rose, and the mechanical equipment industry ranked 11th, with the overall performance in the upper reaches.
Semiconductor equipment: in the past 22 years, the capital expenditure of China's wafer factories continued to increase, and we are optimistic about the domestic substitution opportunities of semiconductor equipment. This year, China's wafer production line construction is expected to still achieve rapid growth: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) capital expenditure of US $4.5 billion in 2021 and US $5 billion in 2022; Huahong semiconductor's capital expenditure in 2021 was $939 million, and it continued to expand its 12 inch capacity in 22 years. It is expected that 22q4 will gradually release 30000 pieces of new capacity / month. This week, Shanghai announced three big orders, including 29 cleaning equipment, 13 front plating equipment and 8 plating equipment. Large quantities of orders indicate that the advanced technology of the company has been verified. China has become the world's largest semiconductor equipment market, and domestic semiconductor equipment has achieved key technological breakthroughs in many subdivided fields. With the increase of downstream capital expenditure and domestic substitution, China is optimistic about the investment opportunities of semiconductor equipment whose localization rate is expected to continue to improve.
Construction machinery: in January, the sales volume of excavator was - 20.4% year-on-year, and the overseas export doubled. In January 2022, 15607 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of - 20.4%. Among them, 8282 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of - 48.3%; The export sales volume was 7325 units, a year-on-year increase of + 104.9%. Despite the obvious decline in the Chinese market, the overseas market sales data of excavators continued to shine. In 2021, the export sales volume of excavators was 68427, with a year-on-year increase of 97%, accounting for 20.0%. The export growth effectively smoothed the cyclical fluctuation. Last December, the central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth", and the Ministry of Finance issued a special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance. In the context of steady growth, the issuance of new special bonds will be accelerated in 2022, and the new special bonds issued in the first quarter may exceed 1 trillion yuan. The government has made active efforts to speed up the issuance of special bonds. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth.
Lithium battery equipment: in January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles made a good start, with a market penetration of 17%. In January 2022, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.2% and + 135.8% respectively. GGII predicts that in 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market is expected to exceed 5.5 million, and the penetration rate is expected to exceed 20%. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are bright, and battery enterprises accelerate the expansion of production, which is good for equipment manufacturers. In January 2022, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output was 29.7gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 146.2%; China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) the installed capacity of battery is 16.2gwh, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 86.9%. According to the statistics of OFweek lithium power grid, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation airlines, honeycomb energy, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) the production capacity planning by 2025 will be 670, 600, 500, 600 and 300gwh respectively. The accelerated expansion of battery enterprises will bring sufficient orders to lithium equipment manufacturers this year and next. The recent correction of lithium battery equipment sector is large. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of lithium battery equipment brought by the valuation and repair of the sector.
Photovoltaic equipment: accelerate the industrialization process of n-type battery, and pay attention to the equipment demand brought by technology iteration. This year's n-type industrialization is accelerating: 1) n-type battery projects are intensively put into operation, and Jingke 8gwtopcon is put into operation, with an average mass production efficiency of 24.5%; Jiangsu Akcome Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002610) 8GW heterojunction battery and its supporting projects are located in Rui'an, Zhejiang Province; Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) it is proposed to raise 5 billion yuan to expand the capacity of 5GW heterojunction battery. 2) Maiwei heterojunction equipment stationed Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) . 3) Yingkou Jinchen Machinery Co.Ltd(603396) hjtpecvd has been verified in Jinneng technology. At present, the average efficiency of battery chips is 24.38%, and the average efficiency of the optimal batch is 24.55%. N-type battery accelerates the replacement of p-type battery, and the mass production efficiency of TOPCON and hjt continues to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to the equipment requirements brought by technical iteration.
Risk factors:
Industry competition intensifies risks.
