In January, 7.73 million air conditioners were exported, and the export boom continued. As of February 18, the home appliance index (Shenwan) was basically the same as that at the beginning of the month, losing Wande's all a index by 3.0pct. This week, Ukraine's geopolitics continued to ferment, resulting in a sharp rise in crude oil prices, driving the prices of main raw materials of household appliances to remain high. Affected by this, the household appliance sector retreated during the week. On February 17, the media reported that Heze, Shandong, lowered the down payment ratio of the first house to 20%. Under the background that the real estate industry is facing downward pressure, the steady growth policy continues to be introduced and the strength continues to improve. Real estate sales may gradually get out of the downturn, and the home appliance industry, as the post real estate cycle, is expected to benefit from it. In addition, the export volume of air-conditioning industry has declined slightly in recent years, although it was 7.71-2 million units year-on-year.
In terms of home appliance fundamentals, we selected 17 home appliance stocks as the research object. Their overall ROE (TTM) has been in a downward channel since the peak in the mid-18 years. The ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 20 years was the lowest value of 17%, and then rebounded. As of 21, the ROE (TTM) in the third quarterly report of 21 years has rebounded to 21%, still 23% lower than the historical average (2014 first quarterly report - 2021 third quarterly report). Looking forward to 2022q1, the bad situation of the household appliance sector is gradually passivated + the valuation is low, and the time point of better configuration is approaching. (1) Negative passivation: raw material prices open a downward channel, the superposition base increases, and the upstream cost pressure decreases marginally in 2022. (2) Low valuation: the overall PE valuation of core household appliance stocks fell back to near the historical average relative to the market. (3) Rising allocation value: the experience of the past 16 years shows that Q4 to Q1 is a period with high winning rate. It is suggested to focus on three main lines: (1) traditional leaders benefiting from fundamental recovery, focusing on Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) , Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Hangzhou Robam Appliances Co.Ltd(002508) , Joyoung Co.Ltd(002242) , Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) ; (2) Focus on Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) , equity reform catalysis + laser TV volume + products going abroad; (3) Emerging household appliances with high prosperity include Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) , Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) .
Fundamentals: in December, real estate sales fluctuated at a low level, and home appliance retail was slightly weak
Real estate data: from January to December 2021, the sales area of commercial housing in China increased by 1.9% (compared with the same period of 19 years + 4.6%) compared with the same period of 2020, and the single month in December 2021 decreased by 15.6% compared with the same period of 2020. Specifically, the growth rate of second tier cities stabilized, while the pessimism of third and fourth tier cities further fermented. Although the policy level made more positive statements in the month, it still takes time for the confidence of the industry to recover. At present, real estate enterprises and buyers are generally in a wait-and-see state, resulting in the downturn of real estate sales and investment in the second half of 21 years. From January to December, the completed area of houses was + 11.2% year-on-year, of which + 0.8% year-on-year in December, and the completion was still tenacious.
Production and sales of household appliances: (1) air conditioners: in terms of delivery, 13.31 million household air conditioners (yoy-5.3%) were shipped in January, including 5.59 million domestic sales (yoy-9.3%). The epidemic occurred in many places from time to time in January, and the retail demand was flat; In January, 7.73 million air conditioners (yoy-2.1%) were exported. Although it decreased slightly year-on-year, the absolute volume remained high. Retail end: in December, the volume / volume of air-conditioning omni-channel retail sales was - 26% / - 19% year-on-year, and - 37% / - 20% respectively compared with the same period in 2019, mainly due to weak real estate sales and other factors. In terms of price, the average price of the industry has been positive year-on-year since 20q4, and the online / offline price maintained growth in December, with a year-on-year increase of + 7% / + 8% respectively; (2) Chef electricity: in December, the retail volume / volume of range hood in all channels was + 4% / + 8% year-on-year, which was - 4% / + 10% compared with the same period in 19 years, and the prosperity was repaired; (3) Refrigerators & washing machines: the volume / volume of refrigerators in December was - 9% / - 0.3% compared with the same period of 2020, and - 5% / + 5% compared with the same period of 19 years. The retail volume / volume of washing machines in December was - 23% / - 13% compared with the same period of 19 years, and - 24% / - 12% compared with the same period of 19 years. (4) Clean appliances: in December, the online retail volume / volume of clean appliances was - 4% / + 12% year-on-year, and the offline retail volume / volume was - 9% / + 16% year-on-year. The increase of the base led to a slowdown year-on-year.
Risk analysis: real estate sales are less than expected; The cost of raw materials has risen sharply; The local currency appreciated sharply.
