From 18650 to 21700 to 4680 batteries, can Tesla lead the innovation direction of the next generation of batteries? The cylindrical battery has mature technology, low pack cost, high battery yield and group consistency; Due to the large heat dissipation area of the battery pack, its heat dissipation performance is better than that of the square battery, but in the later stage, it still has to face the problems of difficult heat dissipation design and low energy density after grouping. Therefore, the penetration rate is not high in the market dominated by square batteries in China. Although the energy density of cylindrical single cell is generally relatively backward, the technology of major suppliers is still different (Panasonic's cylindrical single cell energy density is the world leader). Tesla continues to make technological breakthroughs in this field, from 18650 to 21700 to 4680, and has always maintained an advantage in the field of cylindrical batteries. In September 2020, Tesla released the 4680 battery for the first time on battery day. Can it lead the next generation of technology?
It is estimated that the global installed capacity of 4680 battery 2025e is 264gwh, with a penetration rate of 22% in power batteries. We estimate that with the growth of Tesla's global sales and the increase of the penetration rate of 4680 batteries in three-way battery models, the sales volume of Tesla's models equipped with 4680 batteries is expected to exceed 1.6 million in 2025, the penetration rate in Tesla's total sales is nearly 50%, and the installed capacity is expected to reach 123gwh. Under the guidance of Tesla's technology, we expect that global automobile enterprises and battery manufacturers will follow the trend of 4680 battery structure innovation. In 2025, the global installed capacity of 4680 battery is expected to reach 264gwh, with a penetration rate of 22% in the global installed capacity of power battery and 68% in the installed capacity of cylindrical battery. It is expected to achieve rapid growth from 0 to 1 to n.
The 4680 battery is suitable for high energy density routes and cooperates with CTC + integrated body to "limit" cost reduction. 4680 cell adopts electrodeless ear technology to remove the main heating parts of the battery, so as to reduce the internal resistance and improve the thermal stability of the battery. The 4680 new battery (46mm diameter, 80mm length) has achieved a number of technical indicators: the endurance mileage is increased by 16%, the charge and discharge power is 6 times that of 21700 battery, the energy is 5 times that of 21700 battery, and the cost can be reduced by 14%. 4680 battery and high nickel ternary + silicon-based negative electrode system complement each other, more suitable for high energy density route, and the fast charging performance is greatly improved. Due to the high degree of standardization, the 4680 battery can be used as a "structural battery", which can be flexibly applied to the CTC design of various models. It can also reduce the manufacturing cost through integrated die casting and realize "extreme" manufacturing.
The establishment of the trend leads everyone to follow up: 4680 battery is essentially an innovation in the battery structure. Driven by Tesla and many battery factories, it will achieve rapid growth from 0 to 1 to N in the next five years, become the general trend of medium and high-end passenger car batteries and attract other manufacturers to "enter". Panasonic has announced that its 4680 battery developed for Tesla will be put into trial production in April 2022, which is expected to realize Tesla loading in 2022; In China, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) also announced the project of expanding the production of large cylindrical batteries for 20gwh passenger cars in November 2021.
Investment suggestion: the innovation of 4680 battery will promote the innovation of the whole lithium battery industry chain. The original intention of 4680 battery is to improve energy density and reduce battery cost, which also solves the "pain point" of lithium battery for many years to a certain extent. The efficiency improvement and cost reduction brought by technological innovation are expected to further promote the penetration of global electric vehicles. The silicon carbon negative electrode in the negative electrode material standing at the high point of lithium battery technology, the new lithium salt lifsi in the electrolyte and the single wall carbon nanotube CNT in the conductive agent material are expected to accelerate into the fast lane in the new round of technology wave.
It is suggested to pay attention to the target: Battery: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) . Structural members: Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) , Sunrise Group Company Limited(002752) . Positive pole: Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) etc. Negative electrode: betree, Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) . Electrolyte: Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) etc. Additive: Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) .
Risk analysis: the downstream demand of new energy vehicles is less than expected, the improvement progress of 4680 battery penetration is less than expected, and the increased competition leads to the decline of profitability.
