Core view
[market performance] from February 14 to February 18, the CSI 300 index closed at 4651.24, up 2.19% in one week and down 5.85% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3490.76, up 1.80% in one week and down 4.09% year to date; Among the shenwanyi level industries, architectural decoration, power equipment, non-ferrous metals and other sectors performed well, with the weekly increase of 0.98% in the transportation industry, ranking 22nd; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has increased by 1.31%, ranking seventh; In terms of molecular industries, the top three in the transportation industry are railway transportation (+ 1.49%), expressway (+ 0.25%) and public transportation (+ 0.22%).
[key information] the State Post Office announced that in January 2022, the business income of the postal industry reached 127.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; The total business volume reached 125.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The business volume of national express service enterprises reached 8.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%; The business revenue reached 91.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% (State Post Office).
[Key announcement] 1) Jilin Expressway Co.Ltd(601518) : the company issued the 2021 annual performance express. During the reporting period, the company achieved an operating revenue of 1.272 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.58%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 319 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 221.42%. 2) Xiamen International Airport Co.Ltd(600897) : the company issued a briefing on transportation and production in January 2022. 11378 aircraft took off and landed, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year; The passenger throughput was 1108600 person times, a year-on-year increase of – 4.77%; Cargo and mail throughput was 28800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.43%.
[views of this week]
The volume of air cargo and mail transportation is expected to grow steadily, and the development speed of international freight transportation is expected to lead China’s passenger transportation. According to the plan, the annual growth rate of China’s air cargo transportation volume will reach 95.7 million tons and the annual growth rate of international cargo transportation volume is expected to reach 34.5 million tons in 2025, respectively. According to the planning, the annual growth rate of China’s air cargo transportation volume will reach 95.7 million tons and the annual growth rate of China’s air cargo transportation volume is expected to reach 34.5 million tons in 2025. Since the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic in 2020, China’s air passenger transport has been affected by the global epidemic disturbance, prevention and control policies and other factors. The passenger volume and passenger turnover have fluctuated sharply. China’s passenger transport has recovered rapidly, but China’s international passenger transport has remained in the doldrums. China’s major airlines have taken measures such as “changing passengers to goods” to reduce the operating pressure caused by the decline in passenger demand, and the proportion of freight revenue has been increasing; Air cargo is less restricted by the epidemic prevention and control policy, and the passenger transport returns to the pre epidemic level faster than before; According to the data of Civil Aviation Administration, from January to October 2021, the turnover of air cargo and mail increased by about 19.8% compared with the same period in 2019, with a rapid growth rate. The promulgation of the 14th five year plan for the development of aviation logistics is expected to guide and help civil aviation cargo enter a new stage of development.
The bail-out policy helps to alleviate the financial difficulties of the civil aviation industry in a timely manner and is expected to help the civil aviation industry accelerate its recovery when the demand inflection point is approaching. On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and other 14 departments issued several policies on promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the service industry, which put forward five relief and support policies for the civil aviation industry. Since the beginning of 2020, the overall recovery of civil aviation passenger transport demand has been relatively slow. Due to the factors such as the rise of aviation fuel price and more prevention and control expenses, the civil aviation industry is facing great profit pressure. The civil aviation industry is a capital intensive, highly leveraged and highly indebted industry. The negative impact of the epidemic on the civil aviation industry has increased the difficulty of enterprise financing and capital turnover. Suspending the advance payment of value-added tax in the air transport industry, coordinating the transfer payment funds and the financial resources of local governments to support the epidemic prevention and control of the civil aviation industry, and expanding the credit debt financing channels of civil aviation enterprises will play a positive role in supplementing the cash flow of the civil aviation industry and helping the civil aviation industry through difficult times. Aviation fuel cost is the main operating cost of the aviation company, accounting for more than 20%, and the total profit of the aviation company is more sensitive to the fluctuation of aviation fuel price. Negotiating to cancel the marine transportation premium (USD 2 / barrel), port fee (RMB 50 / ton) and other expenses included in the aviation kerosene price will help the aviation company repair profits and maintain normal operation. The government will coordinate resources and increase support for civil aviation infrastructure construction, which will reduce the cost of obtaining runway, airspace and other core resources in the whole industry and broaden the space for the rise of industry scale. The 14th five year plan of civil aviation defines 2021-2022 as recovery period and savings period, and 2023-2025 as growth period and release period. The rescue policy will help the civil aviation industry tide over the trough cycle. With the gradual improvement of the global epidemic and the orderly relaxation of prevention and control policies, the demand and performance of the industry are expected to accelerate the rebound.
Investment advice
A number of relief and guidance policies have been issued to help the civil aviation industry alleviate the pressure of capital turnover and reduce operating costs, which is expected to benefit the civil aviation industry. Related targets include aviation sector: Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) and airport sector: Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Xiamen International Airport Co.Ltd(600897) .
Risk tips
Fluctuations in crude oil prices; Exchange rate fluctuations; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The disturbance of the epidemic has intensified.
