Core view
The proportion of positions and over allocation in the military sector continued to rise: all funds in 21q4 held 3.7 trillion yuan in heavy positions, of which the value of heavy positions in the military stock market was 127.1 billion yuan, and the proportion of positions in military stocks was 3.44%, an increase of 0.50% compared with 21q3. All funds were in the state of low allocation to the military industry from 19q3 to 20q2. From 20q3, they continued to be over allocated, and the proportion of over allocation showed an upward trend. The proportion of over allocation in 21q4 reached 0.70%, an increase of 0.24% compared with 21q3. 21q4 active fund holds 3.1 trillion yuan in heavy positions, of which the value of heavy positions in military stock market is 108.2 billion yuan, and the position proportion of military stocks is 3.52%, an increase of 0.75% compared with 21q3. Active funds have continuously low allocation to the military industry from 17q3 to 21q2 (except for the over allocation of 0.04% in 18q3). 21q3 has been over allocated for the first time, and the over allocation of 21q4 has reached 0.78%, an increase of 0.49% compared with 21q3.
The Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) group released the blue book on China’s Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) activities (2021): the blue book comprehensively reviewed the Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) activities in 2021. In 2022, the Aerospace Launch and research work of the Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group Co.Ltd(000901) group will still operate at a high level. It is planned to arrange more than 50 space launch missions, launch more than 140 spacecraft and complete the first flight of Long March 6A carrier rocket. Focus on the development of multiple models represented by the fourth phase of the lunar exploration project and the asteroid detector, promote satellite applications, actively serve the national strategic objectives, create an industrial form of “aerospace + informatization +”, accelerate the construction of a comprehensive information service system for high orbit satellite Internet, and establish a comprehensive satellite remote sensing operation service system integrating civil and commercial affairs, Beidou application extends to system integration and value-added services.
The boom expansion of the industrial chain is conducted in an orderly manner, and the value of stabilizing and configuring the sector is prominent: since the beginning of the year, the military industry sector has experienced a sharp correction under the influence of market sentiment and other factors, and the logic of long-term boom expansion remains unchanged. The verification of advances received by downstream enterprises and the landing of large orders will be conducted in an orderly manner to the upstream and midstream along the industrial chain. During the “14th five year plan” period, the demand of supporting enterprises is large-scale and uncertain, and the performance of private leaders will be more flexible. The CSI military industry index is valued at 62 times, which is at the 25% quantile value of historical PE. It is optimistic about the value of sector allocation under the current position.
Grasp the main line of aviation equipment investment, and the independent and controllable growth of military electronics is high: 1) the contract liabilities of main engine factory + verification of advance payment, and the growth of aviation industry chain will continue to be realized. The performance transmission is effective. From the main engine plant and engine system, to the body system and parts, and then to the upstream raw material sector, the whole industry chain has strong momentum and certainty. The main engine manufacturer pays attention to Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) ; Body system concerns Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) ; Aviation parts focus on Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) ; Metal materials focus on Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , etc. 2) The certainty of missile weapons and equipment benefits from practical military training. The independent control of military electronics in the field of high-end equipment brings high growth. We pay attention to Chengdu Tianjian Technology Co.Ltd(002977) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , Beijing Fjr Optoelectronic Technology Co.Ltd(688272) .
Risk warning: military spending is less than expected; Equipment R & D progress and procurement progress are less than expected; Military procurement prices fell; Industry competition intensifies.
