Securities: the trading volume of the market fell rapidly this week, and the average daily turnover decreased by 70 billion to 843.8 billion month on month, failing to exceed trillion for many consecutive days; The two financial balances fell first and then rose in the week, flat at 1.72 trillion, and the market is still depressed. According to the data of China securities registration, in January 2022, the market added 1.3243 million investors, a year-on-year decrease of 36.8% and a month on month decrease of 3.6%. The low willingness of investors to enter the market has something to do with the market performance. Since the beginning of the year, under the comprehensive influence of internal and external factors, core indicators such as trading volume and two financial balances have dropped significantly compared with the recent high, which has directly suppressed the performance expectation of the sector, and then affected the valuation. In the trend of comprehensive registration system, the growth rate of supply is further accelerated. If the demand does not rise correspondingly, the problem of imbalance between supply and demand may continue to exist. Although securities companies directly benefit from the dividend of registration system, they still need to focus on the marginal changes of market core indicators. In the short term, it is suggested to pay attention to the impact of the success of Dongguan securities on Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc(000712) and even the sector.
Insurance: listed insurance companies disclosed the original premium data in January 2022. In terms of life insurance, only PICC Life Insurance and New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) recorded positive growth in the original premium (22.8% and 3.6%), but the growth mainly came from savings products. In terms of property insurance, in addition to Taiping property insurance, the other three insurance companies grew rapidly. Auto insurance, agricultural insurance and other types of insurance have made full efforts, and the scale of credit guarantee insurance with a large decline in premiums in 21 years has also rebounded rapidly. On the whole, the current recovery progress of property insurance is faster than that of life insurance, and the fundamentals of the life insurance sector have not been significantly improved. Considering the implementation of the new regulations of the second generation and the repeated epidemic, and the massive loss of superimposed agents, the difficulty of developing the industry of insurance enterprises is still high; In addition, the change of residents’ consumption concept and consumption structure continues to reduce the demand for margin long-term guaranteed products, so it is too early to judge the inflection point of the industry. At present, the lengthening of the investment cycle of the subject matter of insurance is a high probability event. We believe that if the ten-year bond interest rate tends to rise, life insurance companies will benefit from higher interest rate elasticity, and valuation repair is still a high probability event; If the interest rate stabilizes or goes down, the property insurance subject with relatively good fundamentals will be more dominant.
Sector performance: during the five trading days from February 14 to February 18, the non bank sector fell by 3.93% as a whole. According to the industry classification standard of Shenwan, the non bank ranked 31 / 31 of all industries; Among them, the securities sector fell 5.08%, and the insurance sector fell 2.13%, both underperforming CSI 300 (1.08%). In terms of individual stocks, the top five gainers of securities companies were Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc(000712) (7.32%), Guosheng Financial Holding Inc(002670) (0.33%), Harbin Hatou Investment Co.Ltd(600864) (- 0.17%), Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) (- 0.24%) and Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) (- 0.28%); The rise and fall of insurance companies were Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 1.09%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (- 1.44%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 1.96%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (- 2.25%), Hubei Biocause Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000627) (- 2.57%), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (- 2.95%) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (- 3.32%).
Risk tips: macroeconomic downside risk, policy risk, market risk and liquidity risk.
