Industry core view:
Under the macro background of “steady growth”, the fundamentals of the real estate industry continue to stay at the bottom, and the marginal improvement policy continues. It is expected that there are still many favorable policies to be expected in the follow-up, and continue to be optimistic about the market performance of the real estate sector. It is suggested to pay attention to (1) property management companies with good fundamental performance; (2) High quality real estate enterprises with financial stability and background of central enterprises / state-owned enterprises; (3) Real estate enterprises with high-quality holding properties or transformation enterprises, or effectively form a virtuous capital cycle of “development +”.
Key investment points:
Last week’s market review: last week, the real estate industry in Shenwan industry fell 0.73%, weaker than the market. Since 2022, the real estate industry has risen by 1.91%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index (down 5.85%), with significant relative gains.
Key policy highlights: (1) according to several media reports, the down payment ratio of the first house in Heze, Shandong Province has decreased from 30% to 20%, and Nanning has reduced the down payment ratio of the second house to 30% of the total house price. In addition, many places have also reduced the loan interest rate and down payment ratio of the first house, and the demand side policy is expected to continue to loosen due to the urban implementation; (2) Since 2022, many banks such as Shanghai Pudong development, Guangfa and China merchants have successively offered real estate M & A financing plans, with a total financing scale of more than 50 billion yuan; (3) The national development and Reform Commission issued a notice on printing and Distributing Several Policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, including promoting the healthy development of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the field of infrastructure and implementing the project of “counting East and counting West”; (4) The loan amount of Quzhou housing provident fund is adjusted to the maximum of 800000 yuan for families and 500000 yuan for individuals; (5) Zhejiang, Yunnan, Sichuan and other places have successively issued policies related to talent introduction.
Industry fundamentals: the performance of land and sales market is still weak. From February 7 to 13, the sales of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities fell 52% year-on-year, including 41% in the first line, 55% in the second line and 63% in the third line. The supply and construction area of residential land in Baicheng was 3.046 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 80.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 67.76% and a year-on-year decrease of 69.1%, including 61.74% in first tier cities, 78.45% in second tier cities and 61.76% in third tier cities. The transaction and construction area of residential land in Baicheng was 624000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 92.2%. Since the beginning of the year, it has decreased by 70.74% year-on-year, including 98.41% in the first line, 74.4% in the second line and 65.66% in the third line. The premium rate of residential land in Baicheng was 1.5%, up 0.7 percentage points month on month, of which the premium rates of the first, second and third lines were 0%, 0% and 1.6%.
Key company dynamics: Country Garden Services acquired 93.76% equity of Zhongliang Baiyue Zhijia Service Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zhongliang; “Jianye Department” changes the CEOs of three listed companies at the same time; In terms of financing, Greentown group, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Grandjoy Holdings Group Co.Ltd(000031) etc. have issued medium-term notes, ultra short-term financing, corporate bonds, etc.
Risk factors: the policy strength is less than expected, the industry fundamentals continue to decline rapidly, and the credit risk is higher than expected.
