On Friday, the average selling price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.68 yuan / kg, down 2.52% from last Friday. On Friday, the average price of Sanyuan piglets sold outside 15kg nationwide was 26.51 yuan / kg, down 5.51% from last Friday. Pig prices continued to weaken this week, with the average price of pigs in 9 provinces and cities falling below 12 yuan / kg. The slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises gradually recovered in the second half of the week, and the market was affected by the centralized slaughter before the festival. The overall stock of suitable weight pigs after the festival was insufficient. In addition, the decline of pig price in the first half of the month was too large, the resistance of farmers increased, and the pig price rebounded in the second half of the week. We expect that the probability of pig prices falling again in the latter ten days is high, but the probability of price recovery in areas with low stock in the north is still high. After the festival, the pig price quickly opened a second round of bottoming, adding that the current comprehensive rise in feed prices has brought high breeding costs, which will further promote the industry to take the initiative to reduce production capacity. According to the latest data from the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, at the end of January this year, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.9 million, a month on month decrease of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.7%. The continuous reduction of production capacity will further strengthen our expectation of starting the next round of cycle rise in 22 years. From the perspective of cycle dimension, the pressure of industrial cash flow is large, and the continuous loss brings strong certainty to the second round of capacity de industrialization. The subsequent inventory data is expected to continue to confirm the de industrialization trend. From the perspective of enterprises, it is suggested to focus on the phased achievements of enterprise capacity layout, marketing planning and cost reduction and efficiency increase. We continue to focus on the pig breeding sector. We believe that the inflection point of the cycle is expected to gradually increase at this stage. Although the sector has increased significantly, the de novo average market value dimension is still in the bottom range. Continue to recommend and pay attention to the breeding head enterprises with obvious advantages in cost control, followed by the second-line and small American Standard enterprises that focus on the reversal of difficulties, the expectation of greater cost improvement and the certainty of listing growth, with emphasis on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
Market review:
Among the sub industries of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery this week, the weekly increases and decreases are as follows: planting industry 1.85%, animal health care 1.38%, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing 1.23%, fishery 0.28%, livestock and poultry breeding – 2.05% and feed – 2.74%. Among the companies in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry this week, the top five companies are: jiawo shares 8.52%, Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler Co.Ltd(600251) 7.30%, Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) 6.06%, Xinjiang Korla Pear Co.Ltd(600506) 5.88%, Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) 5.79%; The top five companies are: New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) – 6.93%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) – 7.37%, Wellhope Foods Co.Ltd(603609) – 7.75%, Chalkis Health Industry Co.Ltd(000972) – 7.99%, Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) – 8.42%.
Key tracking:
1. Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) announce the long-term service plan and the first phase of employee stock ownership plan
Event: on February 15, Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) announced that the company has formulated the outline of long-term service plan and plans to implement the first phase of employee stock ownership plan, and plans to grant no more than 23001500 shares to no more than 800 people. The company has repurchased shares.
Key recommendations:
[key recommendations] Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Jinyu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(600201)
[suggested attention] Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) , Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) , Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526)
Risk tips: the risk of livestock and poultry price fluctuation, the impact of extreme weather, the impact of animal diseases, etc.
