Core view
The A-share index rose this week, and the machinery industry ranked well. We believe that in the first quarter of 2022, the pressure on China’s economy to maintain growth continued to increase, and the performance of export-oriented manufacturing industry was better than expected, but the boom fell month on month. From the perspective of fundamentals, in 2022, we need to pay close attention to digitization and intelligence, double carbon goal and greening, internal circulation construction and supply chain reconstruction, which are three clear major trends at present and in the future. We focus on China’s new infrastructure of digital economy and advanced manufacturing special equipment such as new energy and semiconductors The performance recovery exceeded expectations and the targets related to the localization of alternative basic parts continued to be strengthened in the 14th five year plan.
This week is the third week of February 2022. Power equipment, non-ferrous metals, medicine and biology, beauty care, architectural decoration and other sectors performed best, while non bank finance, public utilities, banking, transportation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other sectors performed worst. Compared with last week, this week showed an obvious sector rotation, the oversold sector rebounded significantly in the early stage, and the oversold sector adjusted in the early stage. Among the concept sectors, lithium ore index, photovoltaic inverter, CRO, phosphorus chemical industry and rare earth permanent magnet have the best performance, which are basically the rebound of oversold sectors in the early stage; Stock speculation software, air transportation, securities, digital currency and feed sectors performed the worst, mostly the concept of excess rise in the early stage to make up for the decline.
This week, the market is still an obvious game of stock funds and the trend of rapid rotation of sectors. The market still shows the trend of rapid rotation of rise and fall, killing fall over rise and making up rise over fall, which is expected to continue. However, the early super rising sector dominated by new energy belongs to the technical pullback of the recent oversold. In the medium term, some leading stocks may still have room and time for adjustment, and the recent pullback should also be defined by rebound.
Short term capital behavior does not change the medium-term trend. Investors should choose appropriate strategies and investment cycles according to the nature of funds. January is still a relatively empty window period, and the news was originally relatively flat, but various industrial policies and news have become the largest variable in the market. China’s green development concept and strategy are determined, followed by the implementation of the dual carbon strategy in all parts of the industrial and energy system. Dual carbon is still the focus of the capital market, and the relevant benefit tracks will still be the focus of capital allocation. Commodity prices have stabilized, liquidity is expected to improve, market risk appetite is good, and market activity continues.
We believe that the downside systemic risk of the market next week is still limited, but the sustainability of the main line of hot spots related to maintaining market growth in the near future remains to be observed. If the sector rotation is too fast, we should control the position to defend and counterattack. The fundamental principle is to participate in the new hot spots as soon as possible, continue to avoid the sectors in which the funds hold together and rise excessively, and operate with the band idea. For fundamental investment, we still suggest to select those specialized special new sub industries with better performance than expected in 21 years and continuous prosperity in 22 years for medium-term or above allocation. Focus on allocating oversold stocks with good fundamentals, and pay attention to sectors with strong certainty and reasonable valuation. In the medium term, we will still focus on the growth technology manufacturing enterprises matching the growth and valuation and the new high-quality track sector under the dual carbon background. We will continue to optimize the investment logic related to the import substitution logic of relevant advanced manufacturing sectors such as aerospace military industry sector (civil military participation, missile), new energy (wind power, energy storage, hydrogen energy and nuclear energy) supported by performance or growth expectations, At the same time, we will continue to moderately hold the targets of the science and technology sector (third-generation semiconductor, big data, automotive intelligence, mini led and VR) at the inflection point of prosperity.
Relevant targets include: Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Zhejiang Fenglong Electric Co.Ltd(002931) , Chengdu Shenleng Liquefaction Plant Co.Ltd(300540) , Sichuan Crun Co.Ltd(002272) , Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co.Ltd(002651) , Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.Ltd(300260) , Tongyu Heavy Industy Co.Ltd(300185) , Shanghai Hugong Electric Group Co.Ltd(603131) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) , Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Zhonghang Electronic Measuring Instruments Co.Ltd(300114) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Wus Printed Circuit (Kunshan) Co.Ltd(002463) , Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech Co.Ltd(002436) , Suzhou Chunqiu Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603890) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , etc.
Market performance
This week, the Shanghai stock index rose 0.80%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.08%, the gem rose 3.53%, and the China Securities 1000 rose 3.10%. The wind tertiary industry index machinery industry rose 2.03%, ranking 25 / 62 in the industry growth week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points.
In the machinery industry of the wind tertiary industry index, the top five stocks in the week were Shandong Swan Cotton Industrial Machinery Stock Co.Ltd(603029) , Anshan Heavy Duty Mining Machinery Co.Ltd(002667) , Hiecise Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300809) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) and Jdm Jingda Machine(Ningbo)Co.Ltd(603088) , with increases of 61.13%, 60.99%, 25.67%, 20.03% and 19.87% respectively. The top five stocks with declines were Tangshan Jidong Equipment And Engineering Co.Ltd(000856) , Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Group Co.Ltd(002430) , Ningbo Donly Co.Ltd(002164) , Zhuzhou Tianqiao Crane Co.Ltd(002523) and Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) , with declines of – 14.26%, – 8.07%, – 7.03%, – 6.73% and – 6.07% respectively.
The market index fluctuated slightly this week, and the performance of the machinery sector was poor. The top ten companies rose by more than 10%, and the top ten companies fell by more than 10%. The overall rise and fall of individual stocks in the industry were mixed.
Industry dynamics
\u3000\u30001. National standards are about to be implemented, and the outlet of smart light pole has come (Financial Associated Press)
\u3000\u30002. US launches nuclear and hydrogen infrastructure program ( China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) information network)
Risk tips
The promotion and implementation of industrial policies were lower than expected, the change of market style brought about the downward valuation center of the machinery industry, the continuous downward pressure on profitability caused by the upward cost, and the systemic risk caused by the spread of epidemic abroad
