Key investment points:
Recent market review
In January, the CSI 300 index fell by 7.62%, and the home appliance (CITIC) industry fell by 4.67%. The industry outperformed the market by 2.95 percentage points, ranking eighth among the 30 CITIC primary industries. Among them, lighting electricians and other sub industries fell by 14.80%; White home electronics industry fell 1.40%; Kitchen appliance sub industry fell 8.83%; Black home electronics industry fell 6.50%; The small electronics industry fell 13.80%. In terms of individual stocks, the top gainers are Shanghai Feilo Acoustics Co.Ltd(600651) (+ 6.77%), Hisense Visual Technology Co.Ltd(600060) (+ 6.17%), Kennede Electronics Mfg.Co.Ltd(002723) (+ 5.96%), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (+ 2.16%) and Shanghai Flyco Electrical Appliance Co.Ltd(603868) (+ 2.05%); The largest declines were Shenzhen Breo Technology Co.Ltd(688793) (- 24.98%), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (- 24.47%), Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) (- 21.79%), Inventronics (Hangzhou) Inc(300582) (- 19.42%) and Jiangsu Chunlan Refrigerating Equipment Stock Co.Ltd(600854) (- 19.32%). In January, the overall valuation of the home appliance industry decreased slightly compared with the previous month, ranking in the middle and lower reaches of 30 CITIC first-class industries. From the perspective of valuation, as of January 31, the current overall valuation of the home appliance industry is 17.9 times (pe-ttm, excluding negative value), and the valuation premium rate is 144.35% compared with CSI 300. The valuation of all sub sectors also fell, including 15.26 times for white appliances, 21.46 times for black appliances, 23.11 times for small appliances, 30.74 times for lighting electricians and other sectors, and 18.69 times for kitchen appliances.
Industry operation data
Air conditioning: in terms of output: in December 2021, the output of China's air conditioners in the current month was 19635000 units, with a year-on-year increase of - 1.70%. From January to December this year, the cumulative output of China's air conditioners reached 218357000 units, with a year-on-year increase of 9.40%. According to the data released online by the industry, the total production schedule of the household air conditioning industry is planned to be 13.77 million units in January 2022, down 3.5% from the actual production performance in the same period last year. According to the production scheduling data in January, the overall slight downward trend continues, mainly due to the overall downturn of the terminal sales market and the current off-season of air conditioning, so enterprises are more cautious in production scheduling. Sales volume and price: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the offline sales volume of household air conditioner in January decreased by 29.53% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 34.05% year-on-year, and the average price was 4212 yuan, an increase of 275 yuan year-on-year. In January, the online sales volume of household air conditioners decreased by 20.43% year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 25.98% year-on-year, and the average price was 3236 yuan, an increase of 226 yuan year-on-year.
Refrigerators: in terms of output: by December 2021, the cumulative output of household refrigerators in China had reached 89.921 million units this year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.40%; Among them, the monthly output in December was 7.578 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.2%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, in January 2022, the single month sales volume of the refrigerator line decreased by 15.95% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 25.36% year-on-year. In January, the monthly sales volume of refrigerator online increased by 6.72% year-on-year, and the sales volume increased by 4.13% year-on-year. Price: the average price of the refrigerator industry has increased significantly since the second quarter of last year. According to the statistics of ovicloud, in January 2022, the offline average price of the refrigerator industry was 5849 yuan, an increase of 685 yuan year-on-year; The average online price of the refrigerator industry was 2548 yuan, an increase of 62 yuan year-on-year.
Washing machines: output: as of December 2021, the cumulative output of domestic washing machines in China this year reached 86.185 million, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year; Among them, the monthly output in December reached 7.856 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. Sales volume: according to the statistics of ovicloud, the monthly sales volume of washing machine line in January decreased by 24.13% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 34.05% year-on-year. In January, the monthly sales volume of washing machine online decreased by 2.32% year-on-year, and the sales volume decreased by 4.6% year-on-year.
In terms of raw materials, the household appliance industry is mainly composed of aluminum, copper and plastics. Since 2020, the price of raw materials in the household appliance industry has been rising. The price of raw materials has fallen since May 2021. At present, although it is still in the high price range, it is difficult to maintain the expectation of continuous growth. As of January 31, the spot settlement price of LME aluminum was US $3049.5/ton, up 28.5% year-on-year; LME copper spot settlement price was US $9578 / ton, with a year-on-year increase of 21.82%; The spot price of 1mm cold-rolled ordinary sheet was 5403 yuan / ton, up 8.08% year-on-year.
Investment advice
In January, according to the statistics of ovicloud, the sales volume of online and offline full categories in the home appliance industry decreased by 7.23% and 18.03% respectively year-on-year, the sales volume decreased by 20.68% and 26.9% respectively year-on-year, and the terminal sales were slightly weak. Among them, in January, the integrated stove realized 150000 retail sales in all channels, with a retail sales of 1.38 billion yuan. The retail sales decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, and the retail sales increased by 12.1% year-on-year, showing the phenomenon of "increase in sales and decrease in sales". We believe that the terminal sales in the home appliance market in January were slightly weak, mainly due to the following reasons: 1. Affected by the move forward of the Spring Festival this year, and the base number in the same period last January was high; 2. Affected by the Omicron epidemic in many places this year, offline stores were closed and logistics could not operate normally, which affected terminal sales. To sum up, the industry is given a "optimistic" rating for the time being. In terms of investment suggestions: white power sector suggests paying attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333), Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690), Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) (000651); Kitchen electricity sector: the prosperity of emerging household appliances such as integrated stoves and dishwashers continues. It is recommended to pay attention to the leaders of the emerging household appliances industry who enjoy the high growth dividend of the industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Meida Industrial Co.Ltd(002677) (002677), Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (300911), Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894); Small household appliances sector: we believe that the pressure of high base will be gradually relieved in the future. We suggest paying attention to Shenzhen Crastal Technology Co.Ltd(300824) (300824).
Risk tips
The risk of macroeconomic environment fluctuation; The risk of repeated outbreaks; Risk of exchange loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation; The risk of serious decline in the end demand of the industry; The risk of declining prosperity of overseas exports.
