In January 2022, the automobile production and sales volume increased slightly year-on-year. The overall output of automobiles was 2.422 million, up + 1.4% year-on-year; Among them, the output of passenger cars was 2.077 million, a year-on-year increase of + 8.7%, and the output of commercial vehicles was 345000, a year-on-year decrease of – 28%. In the current month, the overall sales volume of cars was 2.531 million, a year-on-year increase of + 0.9%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.186 million, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%, and the output of commercial vehicles was 344000, a year-on-year increase of – 25%.
The production and sales of passenger cars have performed well, providing strong support for the recovery and development of the automobile market. In January 2022, the output of cars / SUVs reached 96.2/1.007 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3% / 11.1%, and the sales volume reached 101.8/1.057 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% / 8.7%; The production and sales volume of cross passenger cars increased by 29.3% / 78% year-on-year respectively, with a large increase range; The production and sales of MPV models decreased year-on-year.
The overall sales of China’s major auto enterprises performed well, and the new energy brands increased year-on-year. In January, SAIC, Chang’an, GAC and Dongfeng achieved 10% + sales growth, and the two respective brands of SAIC Volkswagen and Chang’an Mazda performed well. In addition, the sales volume of new energy brands increased significantly, Byd Company Limited(002594) (+ 125%), GAC AIAN (+ 118%), Great Wall Euler (+ 29%), and new power brands such as Xiaopeng (+ 115%), Weilai (+ 34%), ideal (+ 128%), Nezha (+ 402%), Zero run (+ 434%) achieved significant year-on-year growth.
The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased year-on-year, and the plug-in hybrid models performed prominently. In January 2022, 452 / 431000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 133.2% / 135.8%. Among them, new energy passenger vehicles contributed mainly to the production and sales, with the production and sales of 437 / 419000 vehicles in the month respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 134.6% / 138.7%. Among the sales of new energy passenger vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles grew the most prominently, with a year-on-year increase of + 203%, and continued to grow month on month, with sales reaching 84000; The sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 352000, a year-on-year increase of 122.6%. In January 2022, the penetration rate of new energy reached 17.03%, a year-on-year increase of + 9.87 PCTs, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.16%, a year-on-year increase of + 10.76 PCTs. We expect that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 5.6 million in 2022, with a penetration rate of 24%.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the of industrial transformation α， The tide of the times β。 In December 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to 19%, the automotive industry changed, the gross profit margin of Tesla and new forces continued to increase, and the performance of Tesla‘s domestic suppliers generally increased rapidly; Tesla wave brings vehicle valuation revaluation, NOA function redefines, smart cars trigger an arms race, hardware stacking, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. Maintain the “recommended” rating of the automotive industry.
Three main lines are recommended:
1. Intelligent driving & Automotive Electronics: intelligent definition of automobile, arms race, hardware stacking and domestic substitution usher in historical opportunities. Recommend Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , and pay attention to Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Xi’An Sinofuse Electric Co.Ltd(301031) , Anhui Tongfeng Electronics Company Limited(600237) .
2. Tesla industrial chain & parts: Tesla manufacturing Revolution: 4680ctc + integrated die casting. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , icodi, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Huada Automotive Technology Corp.Ltd(603358) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) .
3. Complete vehicle: Tesla wave brings the revaluation of complete vehicle valuation & strong model cycle OEM. It recommends Byd Company Limited(002594) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pays attention to Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) .
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is lower than expected; The price of raw materials and freight continue to rise; The demand growth of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Terminal subsidy rebate; The development progress of automobile intellectualization is less than expected; The high-end process of independent brands is blocked; The replacement progress of domestic parts is less than expected; The performance of the recommended company fails to meet the expectations; The situation outside China is not completely comparable, and the relevant materials and data of the benchmarking are for reference only.
