Talk every Monday: production and sales were stable in January, and new energy remained at a high level
In January, China’s automobile production and sales were 2.422 million and 2.531 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.7 and 9.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and 0.9% respectively. The performance was stable and slightly better than expected.
Passenger cars: continue to lead the rise. The production and sales of 2.077 million and 2.186 million vehicles were completed respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% and 6.7% respectively, and a month on month decrease of 17.8% and 9.7% respectively. With the easing of the core shortage problem in the passenger car sector and the recovery of production and sales, it has achieved year-on-year growth. Due to the high base at the end of the year, it is still stable on the whole. The retail sales of independent brands reached 1.004 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.9%. The market share reached 45.9% in the month, and the share fell 1PCT month on month, but it is still at a high level.
Commercial vehicles: the pressure is still there. The production and sales of 344000 and 344000 vehicles were completed respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 28% and 25% respectively, and a month on month decrease of 9.3% and 5.5% respectively. Trucks are still affected by demand overdraft, buses are subject to the weakening of transportation demand, and all types of vehicles are under pressure. In the short term, there is still uncertainty on the demand side of commercial vehicles in infrastructure, real estate, logistics and passenger transport, and they are still in the adjustment period.
New energy: maintain a high level. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times respectively, down 12.6% and 18.6% month on month. Among them, 437000 and 431000 new energy passenger vehicles, down only 10.4% and 15.7% month on month. In that month, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 17%, and that of new energy passenger vehicles reached 19.2%. On the whole, it is not afraid of the high base at the end of the year, with excellent performance, and the performance of plug-in hybrid power is outstanding.
Market review:
As of the closing on February 18, the auto sector was + 2.1%, and the CSI 300 index was + 1.1%. The increase of the auto sector was 1 percentage point ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the sector ranking, the auto industry ranked 12th among the 28 sectors of Shenwan last week. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been – 10.7%, ranking 23rd among the 28 sectors of Shenwan. The weekly increases and decreases of sub sectors are: passenger cars (+ 3.2%), commercial trucks (- 0.6%), commercial buses (- 0.6%), auto parts (+ 1.9%), and auto services (+ 2.2%).
Since the beginning of the year, the sub sectors have increased or decreased respectively: passenger cars (- 11.6%), commercial trucks (- 14%), commercial buses (- 5.9%), auto parts (- 10.5%), and auto services (- 4.6%).
Top five gainers: inbor, Lizhong Sitong Light Alloys Group Co.Ltd(300428) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Iat Automobile Technology Co.Ltd(300825) , Linhai Co.Ltd(600099) .
The top five companies in terms of rise and fall: Shenzhen Roadrover Technology Co.Ltd(002813) , No. 9 company, Senci Electric Machinery Co.Ltd(603109) , Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) , Changzhou Tenglong Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603158) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
The automobile sector should pay more attention to the companies whose profits are determined to grow and the companies whose valuation center is improved. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of core shortage and the opportunities for vehicle and traditional parts enterprises in the improvement stage. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to the competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) . High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) ; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by the fluctuation of production and sales and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , China Automobile Corporation, etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
