Core view
The turnover of new houses and second-hand houses this week increased compared with last week. The number of new houses sold in 47 cities was 38000, up 76.2% month on month and 213.5% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 21000, up 77.7% month on month and 343.8% year-on-year; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 127.6%, + 52.6% and + 97.2% month on month respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 683.1%, 359.4% and + 71.0% respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 10000, up 42.3% month on month and 235.9% year-on-year; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 9000, up 39.2% month on month and 225.4% year-on-year; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by + 40.1%, + 32.1% and + 81.0% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were + 237.9%, + 225.9% and + 195.6% respectively. (since the same period in 2021 is the Spring Festival, the base is relatively low and the year-on-year growth rate is relatively large)
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses decreased, and the decontamination cycle increased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.021 million units, a month on month decrease of 8000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 13.8 months, an increase of 0.1 months; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 553000 units, a month on month decrease of 6000 units, and the decontamination cycle was 9.6 months, an increase of 0.1 month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 258000 units, with a month on month decrease of 4000 units. The decommissioning cycle was 8.2 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.1 months. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, with a month on month decrease of 10000 units, with a decommissioning cycle of 9.9 months, with a month on month increase of 0.2 months. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 90000, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The deconvolution cycle was 16.0 months, up 1.2 months on a month on month basis.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate decreased. The number of all types of land sold in Baicheng was 109, a year-on-year decrease of 57.8%; The planned construction area of the land traded was 6.18 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 68.1%; The total land transaction price was 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 88.1%; The average floor price of land traded was 747 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 62.6%; The land premium rate of Baicheng was 3.32%, a year-on-year decrease of 80.3%.
Investment advice
This week, Hangzhou relaxed the settlement policy and fully liberalized the settlement restrictions of college graduates and above. College graduates who work in Zhejiang can enjoy living subsidies ranging from 20000 to 400000 or house purchase and rental subsidies. We believe that the policy adjustment of high-energy cities at this stage is still dominated by settlement relaxation and talent house purchase subsidies. In addition, this week, Heze City, Shandong Province lowered the down payment ratio of individual housing loans, and the down payment ratio of “no house, no loan” buyers fell to the lowest 20% from the previous lowest 30%. In addition to Heze, some banks in Chongqing and Ganzhou, Jiangxi also reduced the down payment ratio of the first house to 20% before and after the Spring Festival. We believe that the reduction of down payment will promote the release of the demand of some potential home buyers, but the fundamentals of low-energy cities are lack of support. Due to the influence of local residents’ income level, population outflow, the city’s own unlimited purchase policy and other factors, the actual increase of house purchase demand is limited. The reduction of the down payment ratio is a positive signal, especially in terms of commercial loans, which does not rule out the possibility of follow-up in other cities.
At this stage, favorable policies are coming one after another, but we believe that we still need to wait for the follow-up of higher-level cities to have substantive signal significance. We maintain the view that “the first quarter is a better configuration window period”. We suggest paying attention to three main lines: 1) leading real estate enterprises with low credit risk, smooth financing channels and high security: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Under the influence of macro and industrial policies such as interest rate reduction, elastic real estate enterprises with large marginal income: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) . 3) At present, the real estate post cycle property sector with strong income determination, accelerated concentration, recent credit risk mitigation of related real estate enterprises and elastic reversal: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng life and xinchengyue service.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
