This week, the triangle cement price ushered in a second round of rise. The cement price in the south is rising slowly, and the demand in the north is still weak affected by the weather. This week, the glass price rose by 10 yuan month on month, the inventory decreased more, and the downstream demand performed better.
The sector fell slightly and underperformed the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 8055.5 points, down 0.21%, underperforming wandequan a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 14.69 times, down 0.03 from last week. The sector fell and lost the market.
The early judgment was gradually verified and the cement industry continued to be recommended: we continued to recommend the cement industry. The central economic work conference stated that “steady growth” and “moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure construction”, the issuance of special bonds in advance, the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects in many places this week, the acceleration of affordable housing construction and many other events confirmed our previous judgment. At present, the cement price has fallen a lot compared with the historical high in the fourth quarter of last year, but it is still higher than that in the same period of history. We believe that the accelerated decline in cement prices years ago is to better raise prices in the peak demand season. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、P·S32. 5. The price of powder was 400.7 yuan, 471.3 yuan and 450.2 yuan / ton respectively, up 6.0 yuan from last week, down 1.1 yuan and 1.6 yuan, and the price of clinker gradually increased. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 19.4% and 55.9% respectively, up 8.9% and 2.1% respectively compared with last week. Cement prices are still gradually recovering, and cement demand is expected to improve after the spring.
Opportunities for continuous recommendation of pipe industry: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. Many places take urban pipe gallery, Anlan project and water conservancy construction as the key direction of infrastructure construction; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the bottom-up logic of the industry and focus on the b-end leading shares.
Glass: the price rose more and the inventory decreased significantly: the price of flat glass this week was 120.8 yuan, up 10.1 yuan from last week; The inventory days were 12.6 days, down 1.8 days from last week. During the week, the downstream processing plants started replenishment one after another, the float factory inventory continued to be reduced, and the social inventory gradually increased. The short-term market has entered the de social inventory stage. It is expected that the mainstream of the market will operate stably, and the inventory of most float factories is low, and there is still the possibility of slow rise and small rise. The order situation of long-term downstream processing plants will be the key to determine the market.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend ad shares. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended to Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
