High end configuration of luxury cars to improve the driving experience. Air suspension can bring: 1) actively adjust the chassis height to just realize the aerodynamics during driving; 2) Better isolate road vibration and provide nonlinear stiffness curve; 3) Provide damping changes in real time according to the road feedback and body posture, and change the soft and hard of the suspension, so as to provide a better driving experience.
The system composition is complex and the high cost leads to very low penetration rate and broad market space. The system of the whole air suspension system includes air supply unit (compressor, air storage tank, distribution valve, etc.), air spring, variable damping damper, control system, air / circuit pipeline and other components. In the past, it can only be supplied by overseas Tier1 as a whole. The value of a single vehicle is more than 10000 yuan, and some are more than 20000 yuan. According to our calculation, by 2021, the national air suspension penetration rate is about 1.8%, and the penetration rate excluding imported models is about 0.7%. The overall penetration rate has great room for improvement.
Popularization of new energy + upgrading of consumer demand + breakthrough of independent brands + reduction of independent substitution costs jointly promote the penetration rate. Demand side: 1) increased penetration of new energy, increased vehicle mass + size limit of mechanical spring; 2) Consumers' demand for technology and experience of new energy models has increased, jointly promoting the increase of demand side. Supply side: 1) the demand for air suspension increases in the process of independent brand upward breakthrough, requiring enterprises to split supply and give independent brand suppliers opportunities; 2) Independent enterprises such as Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Kong Hui automobile and so on have achieved fixed-point breakthrough by splitting supply, continued to obtain new fixed-point of automobile enterprises, and effectively reduced the supply price of assemblies. The increase of demand + the decrease of supply cost is expected to promote the rapid increase of air suspension permeability. According to our calculation, China's air suspension penetration rate is expected to reach 11.6% in 2025, with a market space of 16.3 billion yuan and a CAGR of 51.3% from 2021 to 2025.
Investment suggestion: it is suggested to pay attention to the related targets of air suspension: [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) + Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) + Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) ], unlisted company [Kong Hui automobile].
Risk tip: the penetration rate of new energy is lower than expected, the popularity of air suspension is lower than expected, and the recovery of downstream passenger car demand is lower than expected.
