Soda ash futures adjust or affect the price of glass futures, and the industry and the company are basically oriented well without obvious change. From February 11 to 18, the price of glass futures fell from 2374 yuan / ton to 2065 yuan / ton, a decrease of 13.0%. On February 14, float glass faucet Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) fell 9.68% to 16.42 yuan, closing at 17.16 yuan / share this week, down 5.61% this week. We believe that the decline of glass futures is mainly due to the decline of soda ash futures. Soda ash futures fell from 3137 yuan / ton on February 11 to 2854 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.0%. Cross species arbitrage made the price of glass futures decline with the price of soda ash futures. We believe that with the mass production of photovoltaic glass in 2022, it will bring about an increase of about 8% to the demand side of soda ash. In 2022, the newly added capacity of soda ash is only 300000 tons, and the industry will maintain a production and marketing gap of about 7%. The price of soda ash is expected to remain high in 2022. However, looking back on the basic data of soda ash in 2021, the growth rate of soda ash sales in 2021q4 was – 20.7%, 14.6pct lower than the growth rate of output; The price of soda ash rose from 2426 yuan / ton to 3345 yuan / ton. Prices and supply and demand fundamentals have deviated significantly. Therefore, we believe that the price of soda ash faces adjustment pressure in the short term, but it is expected to remain high in 2022. The recent adjustment of soda ash futures may be the main reason for the decline of glass futures. There are two reasons for Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) this week’s price adjustment. The first is that the price adjustment of glass futures has affected the market expectation. The second is that the commitment of non redemption of the company’s convertible bonds is about to expire. If the forced redemption is triggered, the conversion selling pressure will have a certain impact on the company’s stock price in the short term, resulting in the market’s concern about the redemption of convertible bonds. We believe that there is no significant change in the company’s fundamentals, and the company is less likely to redeem convertible bonds in the near future. This week, the average spot price of glass has increased to 121.3 yuan / heavy box, an increase of 7.4%, indicating that the current industry is optimistic about the growth of downstream orders in the future. The price increase of the original film factory is relatively smooth, and the price increase is expected to continue in the future. We believe that the completion of real estate in the first half of the year can still maintain a certain growth rate. At the current time point, we recommend building materials related to post cycle completion.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 02 / 14-2022 / 02 / 18), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by 0.4%, and the excess return relative to CSI 300 was – 0.7%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 1.2%, compared with the excess yield of CSI 300 is 4.6%. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was 0.4%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was 0.1%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 0.8% / – 8.6%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 121.62 yuan / weight box, up 11.7% month on month and 11.7% year-on-year. The inventory was 38.1 million weight boxes, down 12.3% month on month. We believe that the overall repair scale of the real estate industry is expected to increase, and the repair price is expected to maintain a small increase in 2022. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 12250 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. The average transaction price in the national cement market this week was 514 yuan / ton. The cement delivery rate rose 10.6pct to 14.8% month on month, and the storage capacity ratio was 66.0%, which was flat month on month. Clinker along the river rose for the second time this week, but the powder price was flat, so we should focus on the release of actual demand in the downstream.
Optimistic about the bottom recovery of glass prices, corresponding to the key recommendations Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636, buy), Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) (000012, buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) (603916, buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271, buy), and China Liansu (02128, buy). The glass fiber market continues to improve, and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176, buy) is recommended.
Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
