Key investment points:
Industry trend and valuation
From January 13, 2022 to February 18, 2022, CSI 300 fell 4.01%, SW auto sector fell 8.91%, underperforming the market by 4.89 percentage points.
As of the closing on February 18, the TTM P / E ratio of SW automotive industry was 28 times, and the valuation premium rate relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell to 118.14%, including 34 times for passenger cars and 26 times for parts.
Industry: independent performance is strong, channel replenishment is in progress, and the cost has increased
In January, the car sales volume was 2.531 million, with a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. It became positive for the first time since May last year, with a month on month decrease of 9.2%. It was mainly affected by the impulse at the end of last year, and the decline was less than that in the same period of 2021 and 2019. Among them, the passenger car increased by 6.7% year-on-year. By department, the sales volume of independent passenger cars in January reached 1.004 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, exceeding the industry by 9.1 PCT, with a corresponding market share of 45.9%, with a month on month change of + 3.5 / - 1.0 PCT.
At the end of January, the inventory of passenger cars was 438000, a decrease of 20.36% compared with the beginning of the month. It is judged that it is mainly due to the impact of the pre holiday holidays from dealers and some main engine manufacturers on the pace of production and marketing; In January, the inventory depth coefficient of auto dealers increased to 1.46 compared with the previous month, and the channel replenishment continues.
In terms of price, the price of passenger cars is at a high level, while terminal concessions continue to narrow; In terms of cost, the price of main raw materials has increased since the beginning of the year, and the pressure on automobile manufacturing cost remains.
New energy vehicles: the sales volume continues to increase, and the proportion of ternary power batteries is expected to rise steadily
In January, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 431000, with a year-on-year increase of 135.8% and a month on month decrease of 18.6%, which was mainly affected by the impulse before the decline of subsidies at the end of last year. At present, the product supply of new energy vehicle enterprises continues to be diversified and high-quality, and the terminal demand is still strong. In terms of upstream industrial chain, the loading volume of power battery in January was 16.18gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 86.88% and a month on month decrease of 38.27%. Structurally, LFP accounted for 54.83% in January, with a year-on-year increase of 17.26pct. We expect that with the promotion of high nickel line this year, the proportion of ternary power battery is expected to rise steadily.
Investment strategy
1) despite the month on month decline in wholesale and retail sales in January due to the impulse at the end of last year, under the influence of tight chip supply and the spread of the epidemic, the range is less than that in the same period in recent years, indicating that the terminal demand is still growing and there is a foundation for the recovery of the industry; At the same time, China's demand for steady growth is becoming more and more obvious. Under the strategic requirements of expanding domestic demand, automobile consumption is expected to become an important driving point, and the necessity of encouraging automobile consumption is increasing. From a comprehensive analysis, we expect that on the premise that the chip supply continues to improve and there is no significant impact of the epidemic, the sales volume is expected to turn positive year-on-year under the demand replenishment and normal replenishment this year. Combined with the low base effect of last year, it is expected to achieve rapid growth throughout the year. In terms of internal structure, we believe that the brand and pattern of the passenger car sector will continue to be optimized. It is suggested to pay attention to the independent industrial chain with strong product power and resonance with the new car cycle, as well as the high-quality joint venture brand industrial chain under the logic of replenishment and recovery of subsequent industries, especially the investment opportunities of high-quality parts under the joint vibration of replenishment and export recovery, In terms of short-term recovery elasticity, we are optimistic about the mass industrial chain greatly affected by the lack of core in the early stage. Generally speaking, the recommended targets are Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) (600104), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238), Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625), and the targets of high-quality parts are Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) (300258).
2) in terms of new energy vehicles, although the price of vehicle models has been raised due to the decline of subsidies and the price adjustment of power batteries since the beginning of the year, and the expectation of rapid growth of the industry is facing certain pressure, we believe that at present, the independent and new forces of vehicle manufacturing and international car enterprises such as Tesla and Volkswagen continue to accelerate the layout of the Chinese market, the supply of vehicle models is becoming more and more diversified, and the market competitiveness is constantly improving, The logic of supply stimulating demand will continue to be deduced. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the sales volume this year. Among them, class a vehicles and hybrid vehicles will effectively supplement the model product line this year, which is expected to contribute to the main increment. At the same time, the global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States. Among them, if the electric vehicle tax credit policy of up to US $12500 per vehicle can be implemented and the new vehicle cycle is coming, the United States will become a new growth pole of the global new energy vehicle market this year. Therefore, along the main line of the global supply chain, we are optimistic about: ① China's entry into and binding with Tesla, Volkswagen and other international car enterprises and companies in the supply chain of new forces of car manufacturing, such as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689), Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) (603305), Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) (002050), Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (000887), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) (600741), Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) (002126) Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) （ 603348）； ② Enterprises that enter the leading supply chain of power batteries such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , ferdi battery ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ), LG energy solution and Panasonic, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (002812). ③ It is expected to stand out in the fierce competition of 600066 {0024}.
3) in terms of smart cars, we believe that with the joint active promotion of car enterprises, technology giants and new forces in car manufacturing, from the medium and long-term perspective, the sales and penetration of global and Chinese smart Internet connected vehicles are expected to rise rapidly. This year, many high-end smart models in China are expected to be launched one after another (pay attention to this year's Beijing auto show), and the industry is expected to achieve a qualitative breakthrough from L2 to L3, The intelligent driving market has entered a period of accelerated development. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) the targets of Huawei's intelligent vehicle industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625. SZ), Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) (600733. SH), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (601238. SH), etc; 2) At the perception level, the demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors and intelligent lamps will continue to increase; Meanwhile, the penetration rate of smart cockpit / smart chassis (including air suspension, brake by wire, electric steering, lightweight chassis and integrated die casting technology) will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (002920), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (601799), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (603786), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) (603197), Foryou Corporation(002906) (002906), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) (601689).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The recovery of automobile production and sales was less than expected; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected; Price rise of raw materials and exchange rate risk; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected
