Core view
Since the outbreak of covid-19 epidemic, epidemic prevention policies, travel restrictions and repeated epidemics have had a serious impact on the consumption scenes of tourism, catering, hotels, food, drinks and other industries. At present, the epidemic situation is expected to continue to improve. The 14th five year development plan of tourism and other industries also looks forward to the liberalization of entry and exit when the epidemic situation allows. We believe that with the support of policy support + better prevention and control situation, the inflection point of consumption recovery is coming and the prosperity is expected to continue to rise. Looking forward to the future, how to layout the investment after the epidemic and how to interpret the recovery market, the large consumption team of East Asia Qianhai Securities Research Institute has launched a series of in-depth reports on "foreseeing the recovery and layout after the epidemic". This is series 4: catering.
The development of the early epidemic has greatly dragged down the catering industry. Under the influence of the epidemic on offline activities, the operation of the catering industry has been greatly impacted. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the early stage of the epidemic, the revenue growth rate of the catering industry above the quota fell far beyond the total social zero, and the year-on-year growth rate of the catering revenue above the quota in 2020 was significantly lower than the social zero growth rate. The proportion of the revenue of the catering industry above the quota in the total social zero also fell sharply, and the epidemic has become an important factor affecting the catering industry. During the epidemic period, leading enterprises opened stores against the trend, and the chain rate and concentration of the industry accelerated. Although the scale of China's catering industry is huge, the chain rate of China's catering industry is relatively low due to factors such as short development time and many tastes. Although the chain rate of the industry as a whole continues to improve, compared with developed countries such as the United States and Japan, the chain rate of China's catering industry is still low. The Cr5 of Chinese catering brand is only 2%, while that of the United States and Japan is 15% and 14% respectively. As the leading enterprises continue to open stores against the trend during the epidemic, the concentration of the whole industry tends to increase, and the advantages of leading enterprises will further appear after the epidemic.
Catering leaders may benefit from the excellent performance during the epidemic and have more growth. Prefabricated dishes may usher in a period of development opportunities with the help of the improvement of catering chain rate. According to the "China catering big data 2021" released by meituan, from the perspective of the distribution of the number of chain brand stores, the proportion of catering chain stores above 10000 stores has doubled in three years, which is the category with the fastest growth in the proportion, indicating that large-scale catering chain stores are rapidly occupying a larger market share, and the catering industry has entered the stage of large-scale, branding A new node in the development of standardization. Compared with Japan, China's per capita consumption of prefabricated vegetables has more room for growth, or will usher in explosive growth after the epidemic. According to statista's data, China's per capita consumption of prefabricated vegetables increased from 5.4kg in 2013 to 8.9kg in 2021, showing an overall upward trend, but there is still a large gap in more mature markets. In 2021, Japan's per capita consumption of prefabricated vegetables was 2.65 times that of China, indicating that there is still much room for growth in the scale of China's Prefabricated vegetables industry. With the gradual development of Chinese chain restaurants, the demand for prefabricated dishes may be more large-scale and efficient in the future. The field of prefabricated dishes in China has gradually entered a large-scale stage.
Investment advice
The epidemic has brought changes to the catering industry, focusing on the investment opportunities of catering leaders and prefabricated dishes. At present, benefiting from China's strong epidemic prevention and control policy and high vaccination rate, the epidemic has been significantly controlled, China's economy has gradually recovered, and the painful period of the catering industry has gradually gone away. As leading enterprises opened stores against the trend during the epidemic period, the chain rate and concentration of the industry may accelerate, and the development of leading enterprises will be smoother. At the same time, with the gradual development of Chinese chain restaurants, the demand for prefabricated dishes may become larger and more efficient in the future, and China's Prefabricated dish industry may usher in explosive growth after the epidemic. Related targets: Haidilao, jiumaojiu, Xiabu, Xiabu, China Quanjude(Group) Co.Ltd(002186) , Parkson China, Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) and other targets benefiting from the recovery of the catering industry.
Risk tips
The economy fluctuates more than expected; Further development of the epidemic; Strengthen policy supervision; Food safety issues.
