Pig: the pig sector is still in an important layout window
Investment suggestion: the pig sector is still in an important layout window period at present: 1) the elimination of fertile sows has continued, and the elimination of fertile sows has decreased month by month since July last year. Even during the sharp rebound of pig prices from October to November, the affordability of the breeding industry is greatly weakened from the expected loss to the aggravation of real loss, The depopulation of fertile sows will be strengthened. Therefore, it is currently at the inflection point of depopulation; 2) The trend of double bottom of pig price is clear. On the one hand, the three complete pig cycles experienced since 2006 are double bottom. On the other hand, under the obvious mismatch between supply and demand in the first half of this year, there will be a great probability of double bottom gradually; 3) In terms of valuation, although the sector has rebounded recently, the valuation is still in the bottom area, with sufficient upward elasticity. On the whole, it is still an important investment window for the sector. Continue to recommend the pig sector, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , and pay attention to Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) .
Poultry: yellow chicken prices have fallen in the short term, but the fundamentals are still optimistic
Investment suggestion: in terms of yellow chicken, the price after the festival has decreased with the decline of demand, and some regions have benefited from the epidemic to boost the price. Throughout the year, yellow chicken is expected to show a trend of low before high after the continuous reduction of production capacity, and the industry fundamentals are expected to regain an upward trend. The short-term fundamentals will change with the change of demand, and the medium-term fundamentals will continue to improve under the capacity contraction. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity, the industry concentration is further improved. We continue to be optimistic about the investment opportunities of Huangji sector. We recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) , Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
Dynamic insurance: focus on the growing dynamic insurance leader
Investment suggestions: the reform of the breeding industry has promoted the transformation of the competition pattern of the animal protection industry, accelerated the trend of large-scale breeding, normalized the prevention and control of non plague conditions, significantly raised the industry access threshold with the new GMP certificate, accelerated the industry reform of feed end prohibition and breeding end restriction, and the trend of large-scale breeding enterprises gathering into large-scale animal protection enterprises is becoming more and more obvious; The competition of animal protection enterprises has entered the stage of seedling drug linkage and collaborative promotion of efficient breeding services from the era of single product competition. We mainly recommend Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) with low value and high growth target, Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) , followed by Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) , China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) .
Planting: the price of corn and wheat remained high, and the state raised the minimum purchase price of rice in 2022
Investment suggestion: the prices of wheat and corn remain high, and the demand for seeds remains high. The revision of the seed law has long been conducive to the improvement of industry concentration and the market share of leading companies. The commercialization of medium – and long-term genetically modified seeds will continue. Recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , etc.
Feed: high crude oil prices boosted commodity prices, and soybean meal prices rose by more than 4000 yuan / ton
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the overall production and sales of feed will continue to grow in the first half of 2022. The price rise of feed raw materials such as corn and soybean meal has slightly squeezed the gross profit margin of feed processing, but the leading enterprises have a strong ability to transfer costs to downstream breeding plants, and the market share is expected to increase. It is recommended to focus on Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , followed by Hefeng animal husbandry.
Pets: be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet tracks
Investment suggestion: we believe that the fundamentals of China’s pet industry are still in rapid development. Although the epidemic has led to a decline in the growth rate of China’s pet consumption, we are still optimistic about the development prospect of the pet consumption market in the post epidemic era; With the declining Engel coefficient of pet consumption and the rising trend of pet consumption upgrading, the proportion of consumption in pet diagnosis and treatment, pet supplies, pet nutrition and health care, pet services and other fields is expected to continue to rise in the future. Compared with other market segments, pet food and pet medicine have natural advantages. We mainly recommend Yantai China Pet Foods Co.Ltd(002891) and Petpal Pet Nutrition Technology Co.Ltd(300673) for pet food and Tianjin Ringpu Bio-Technology Co.Ltd(300119) for pet health care and medical treatment.
Industry rating and investment strategy: the pig price is in the process of the second bottom of the w bottom. At present, the downward space of pig price is very limited. The sector, especially the leading valuation, is still at the bottom, with sufficient margin of safety; The fundamentals of Huangji industry have maintained an upward trend after continuous capacity removal. With the withdrawal of small and medium-sized capacity, the industry concentration has further improved, and the investment opportunities of Huangji sector have been continuously optimistic; In terms of seed industry, the revision of Seed Law and the promotion of transgenic commercialization will promote the improvement of industry concentration and the expansion of market space, and continue to be optimistic about the growth of leading enterprises; In terms of feed, the recovery of pig production capacity will continue to support the feed sales in the first half of the year, and pay attention to the price of feed raw materials in the second half of the year; In terms of dynamic insurance, it is in the period of industry reform. With the improvement of industry concentration, the advantages of leading enterprises will be gradually clear; Be optimistic about the consumption and growth attributes of pet track. Give the industry a rating of “recommended”.
Risk tips focus on the risk that the company’s performance is lower than expected, the risk of sharp market fluctuation caused by emergencies, the risk of epidemic disease in the breeding industry, the risk of policy uncertainty, the risk of price fluctuation, the risk of extreme weather, etc.
