Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on February 11, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 411.5 million barrels, an increase of 1.1 million barrels per week; Gasoline inventory was 247.1 million barrels, a decrease of 1.3 million barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 120.3 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Propane inventory was 4190.3 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 5.935 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on February 11, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 800000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. On February 18, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 645, with an increase of 10 in the week and 248 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 220, with an increase of 1 in a week and 48 in a year. Among them, there are 520 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 4 in the week and 215 in the year.
Price change:
The price of our top chemical products rose by 13.9% and that of ethylene oxide rose by 14.5% respectively; The top three declines were acetic acid (down 11.5%), urea International (down 11.3%) and n-butanol (down 10.0%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were melamine (up 45.8%), trichloroethylene (up 32.1%) and butyl acrylate (up 29.2%); The top three declines were urea International (down 33.8%), liquid chlorine (down 21.3%) and glycine (down 19.8%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are ethylene oxide price difference (up 145.6%), DMAC price difference (up 95.3%) and isooctane price difference (up 59.3%); The top three declines were: oil head ethylene glycol price difference (down 456.7%), polyethylene price difference (down 67.8%) and PTMEG price difference (down 54.9%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price difference increases were butadiene price difference (up 285.5%), calcium carbide PVC price difference (up 232.4%) and butyl acrylate price difference (up 225.0%); The top three declines were R410A price difference (down 200.0%), oil head ethylene glycol price difference (down 121.8%) and polyethylene price difference (down 91.3%).
We continue to be optimistic about the future price and profit of adipic acid. On the one hand, the two new demand points of PBAT and nylon 66 will soon start to significantly boost the demand for adipic acid. On the other hand, under the background of double carbon target, the carbon emission of traditional hydrogen production methods is too large, which will seriously restrict the possibility of adipic acid capacity expansion in the future. We believe that the price center of adipic acid in the future is likely to be similar to the current BDO. It is estimated that the price and price difference of adipic acid in the future are expected to reach 17000 yuan / ton and 10000 yuan / ton respectively, with a high profit ceiling. It is suggested to focus on Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426, buy) and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346, buy). The former has a capacity of 360000 tons of adipic acid and has a certain capacity of expansion; The latter plans to build a new capacity of 300000 tons of adipic acid.
Risk tips
China’s policy changes; The project progress does not meet expectations; Oil prices fluctuated sharply. Investment proposal and investment object
