In January, auto wholesale sales were stable and positive, and the export growth potential remained unchanged
1. In January, the automobile production and sales increased year-on-year. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the automobile production / sales in January were 2.422 million / 2.531 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.4% / + 0.9% respectively. The year-on-year sales volume of + 2180000 passenger cars / 7.7% respectively.
2. The high growth trend of exports continued, and the proportion of sales continued to increase. According to the data of China Automobile Association, automobile enterprises exported 231000 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of + 87.7% / + 3.8% respectively, which is at the second highest level in history (only slightly lower than the export sales volume in October 2021). 1) The proportion of export sales continued to increase. In January, automobile exports accounted for 9.1% of the total sales volume, with an increase of 4.4pct/1.1pct respectively on the same / month on month basis; 2) The export of new energy vehicles has become the biggest bright spot. In January, 56000 new energy vehicles were exported, with a month on month ratio of + 542.6% / + 206.3%, accounting for 24.2% of the total automobile export sales in January.
3. Further increase the market share of independent brands. 1) Independent brand retail sales rose against the trend. According to the data of the association, the retail sales volume of independent brands in January was + 9.7% year-on-year (exceeding - 5.0% of the overall market). In January, the market share of independent brands reached 45.2%, higher than that of last year (41.2%); 2) Byd Company Limited(002594) and Chery Automobile contributed the main increment. Byd Company Limited(002594) / Chery's retail sales in January were 95000 vehicles / 76600 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 126.7% / + 16.8% respectively. The two auto companies contributed 51.9% and 13.3% to the incremental retail sales of their own brands in January, respectively.
According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, three positive factors will support the auto market in the first quarter. 1) Many governments may actively introduce policies related to steady growth to support relatively stable market demand. Since 2022, many ministries and commissions and local governments have emphasized "moderately ahead of schedule layout of major infrastructure" and expanded effective investment and other economic stimulus policies; The national development and Reform Commission and other seven ministries and commissions issued the implementation plan for promoting green consumption, and continued to promote the development of the industry from the aspects of canceling the purchase restrictions of local new energy vehicles and promoting the implementation of traffic exemption; 2) The shortage of chips in the automotive industry is expected to continue to ease. According to the data of core shortage and production reduction released by autoforecast solutions, since 2022 (as of February 14), China's production reduction due to core shortage has been 51000, which is only 2.6% of the total production reduction in 2021; 3) Many passenger car companies have good market expectations for 2022 and set high annual sales targets. For example, Geely / Byd Company Limited(002594) / great wall and other car companies have set annual sales growth targets of 24% / 64% / 48% respectively, with sufficient momentum in the first quarter.
Investment suggestion: we believe that from the perspective of medium-term investment, there is no need to worry about the recovery intensity of core shortage. With the deep recovery of inventory, wholesale and retail sales in the auto market is expected to usher in a synchronous recovery. 1. It is recommended to pay attention to Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in the upward product cycle. 2. Suppliers of automotive electronics related parts are expected to realize domestic substitution and price volume increase in the acceleration of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to: Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (EPB + wire controlled braking), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) (light control), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (intelligent lamp), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) (Intelligent cabin system), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), etc.
Risk tip: the mitigation progress of core shortage in the automotive industry is less than expected, the recovery of industry demand is less than expected, the process of automotive intelligent industry is less than expected, and the development of new energy vehicle industry is less than expected.
