Zhou viewpoint: sequential immunization is launched, and covid-19 vaccine meets new demand
On February 19, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference and announced the deployment of sequential immunization, marking the beginning of heterologous vaccination in China.
Recently, the number of epidemic cases in China’s neighboring countries and Hong Kong has surged. Since the beginning of 2022, especially after February, Asian regions and countries such as Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea have ushered in the strongest wave of epidemic impact, and local epidemics have emerged in many places such as Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Guangdong and Jiangsu.
China has officially started continuous vaccination, and there is still a large demand for booster injection. At present, the safety and effectiveness of sequential vaccination have been effectively confirmed and carried out in many countries and regions around the world. It is estimated that China still has more than 700 million doses of booster vaccination demand.
The population of mutant strains is endless, and vaccine research and development needs to keep pace with the times. No matter whether the simplified R & D and approval process is finally adopted (changing the seeds of different strains without different clinical stages), or the follow-up research on covid-19 multivalent polyclonal vaccine (covid-19 influenza polyclonal vaccine with different variant strains) will generate new needs.
Investment suggestion: for sequential vaccination, we are more optimistic about Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) and Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) ; For the R & D of mutant vaccine, if the R & D and approval process of mutant vaccine is simplified, in terms of speed, mRNA is better than inactivation and better than subunit and adenovirus vector, and the R & D of multi linked and multivalent vaccine is optimistic about Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) and Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) with platform technical reserves.
Market review: the biomedical sector performed well this week, rising 4.85%, ranking third in all SW primary industries. Since the beginning of this year, pharmaceutical biology has fallen by 13.25%, 7.40 percentage points lower than the CSI 300 index, ranking 28th in all SW primary industries. In terms of industry segments, the pharmaceutical and biological segments rose across the board this week, with medical services up 12.59% and medical business up 0.78%. Since the beginning of this year, the performance of chemical APIs has been the best, down 7.79% year to date; Medical services was the weakest performing sub sector, down 18.52%. Traditional Chinese medicine (- 13.42%) and medical services (- 18.52%) underperformed the pharmaceutical and biological (SW) industry index.
In terms of performance of individual stocks, the top five stocks that rose last week were: Hybio Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300199) (40.77%), Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) (36.15%), Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) (28.58%), Shanxi C&Y Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300254) (23.93%) and Contec Medical Systems Co.Ltd(300869) (23.61%). The top five stocks with declines were: Zhejiang Hisoar Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002099) (- 12.57%), Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) (- 10.87%), Lanhai medical (- 8.90%), China Reform Health Management And Services Group Co.Ltd(000503) (- 7.51%) and Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) (- 5.48%).
Valuation: this week’s valuation showed a slight listing trend. As of Friday (February 18), PE (TTM) and Pb (LF) of the whole pharmaceutical and biological (SW) industry were 30.8 times and 3.77 times respectively.
Risk warning: R & D failure; The vaccination rate was lower than expected; Vaccine prices fell.
