Core view
“Steady growth” policy continues to exert force] the recovery of demand side pushes up the price of industrial metals
The national development and Reform Commission issued the notice on several policies to promote the steady growth of industrial economy, supported enterprises to invest in the development of mineral development projects such as iron ore and copper mine that meet the requirements of China’s resources and ecological and environmental protection, and encouraged the acceleration of the construction of major new infrastructure projects. The “steady growth” policy continued to increase, the downstream demand recovered significantly after the Spring Festival, the inventory of copper, aluminum and other bulk metals remained low, and there was no obvious increase trend, so we continued to be optimistic about the price of industrial metals. LME copper rose 0.96% this week to close at US $9955 / ton; LME aluminum rose 4.14% to close at US $3266.5/ton; LME lead rose 2.33% to close at US $2332 / ton; LME zinc fell – 1.28% to close at US $3580 / ton; LME tin rose 0.83% to close at US $43910 / ton; LME nickel rose 5.29% to close at US $24270 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) .
The China Automobile Association released the sales data of new energy vehicles in January, and the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate is still tight
According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in January 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to maintain high-speed growth year-on-year, reaching 452000 and 431000 respectively. The good performance of new energy vehicle sales drives the demand for energy metals. After the Spring Festival, although manufacturers began to resume work one after another, the supply and demand of lithium is still in a tight balance. Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 13.48% to close at 421000 yuan / ton this week; Battery grade lithium carbonate rose 12.82% to close at 440000 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) .
Continued recovery of recycled aluminum after electrolytic aluminum supply Festival
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell – 0.86% to close at 71510 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum fell – 0.57% to close at 22740 yuan / ton; Lead rose 1.11% to close at 15495 yuan / ton; Zinc fell – 2.13% to close at 25140 yuan / ton; Tin rose 0.37% to close at 337250 yuan / ton; Nickel rose 2.39% to close at 176770 yuan / ton. After the Spring Festival, the high aluminum price promotes the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises. At the same time, Guangxi Baise aluminum industrial park is gradually unsealed, but the shortage of foreign energy may continue and the relationship between supply and demand is tense. The national development and Reform Commission issued a document to encourage the recycling of waste non-ferrous metals, benefiting the recycled aluminum industry. Recommended concerns: Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Ye Chiu Metal Recycling (China) Ltd(601388) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine continued to be tense, and the price of gold rose slightly
Russia Ukraine relations continued to be tense this week, and geopolitical risks heated up the market risk aversion, boosting the strength of gold prices this week. This week, spot gold in London rose 2.12% to close at US $1897.77/oz, while the US dollar index rose 0.07% to close at 96.10; COMEX gold rose 3.19% to US $1899.80 per ounce this week, while Comex Silver Rose 2.49% to US $23.99 per ounce. In the short term, the tension in Russia and Ukraine may continue, and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve will be gradually digested. We expect the gold price to remain high and volatile.
Risk tip: the situation in Russia and Ukraine continues to deteriorate, and the downstream demand is lower than expected.
