Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index rose. From February 14, 2022 to February 18, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.80%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the light industry manufacturing index rose 0.62%, ranking 16th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: papermaking (+ 0.91%), household light industry (+ 0.05%), packaging and printing (- 0.42%).
Furniture: continue to prompt the valuation and repair opportunities of the home sector, the first is [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]. In terms of domestic sales of furniture, β From the continued repair of valuation under steady growth, the marginal relaxation of real estate policy since 2021q4, and the introduction of supervision opinions on pre-sale funds of commercial housing on February 10, 2022, once again alleviated the financial pressure of real estate enterprises. We believe that the dark time of real estate has passed, while the valuation of furniture sector is still in a low position, and there is still room for panel valuation to be repaired. α It comes from the concentration improvement brought by the evolution of leading retail capacity under the continuous change of traffic structure. It is recommended that [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]: the optimization of channel management stimulates the vitality of dealers and the whole strategy opens the space for the growth of customer unit price; [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] the pioneer of retail reform, regional retail centers and warehouse distribution service enabled dealers, and the big home route is becoming increasingly clear; At the same time, it is recommended that [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], the leading position of integrated high growth, and the functional sofa leading [Minhua holding] with low valuation, should be paid attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of export, it is recommended that the dilemma can be reversed and the scarcity of us production capacity layout is gradually realized under anti-dumping [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ]. It is suggested to pay attention to the [ Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) ] with high revenue growth driven by production capacity release and strong bargaining power.
E-cigarette: Nippon tobacco disclosed its performance in 2021 and continued to develop new tobacco. JT disclosed its annual results on February 14, 2022, achieving an operating revenue of 2.32 trillion yen (about 127.6 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 11.1%, and a net profit of 338.5 billion yen (about 18.6 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 9.1%. In the Japanese market, in 2021, the company's shipments of harm reducing tobacco products increased by 17.2% year-on-year to 4.6 billion, while the company's shipments of traditional tobacco products increased by - 9.5% year-on-year to 62.2 billion; In 2021, the company's share of shipments in Japan's harm reducing tobacco market increased from + 0.4pp to 10.3% year-on-year. Global regulatory policies tend to be stable, new tobacco continues to enter emerging markets, and standardized regulation is expected to continue to stimulate the innovation ability of excellent leaders. At the same time, we are optimistic that the leader will catch up in the follow-up of overseas disposable e-cigarettes and realize the rapid increase of share. Continue to recommend [smore international]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: the price rise of cultural paper is smooth, and the profitability is expected to be repaired. In terms of price, as of February 18, 2022, the price of wood pulp was 6426.8 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 75 yuan / ton; The price of carton board paper is 4928 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 17 yuan / ton; The price of corrugated paper was 3921.9 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 6195 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 175 yuan / ton; The price of whiteboard paper is 4930 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 25 yuan / ton; The price of double copper paper was 5380 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper is 5825 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 125 yuan / ton. In terms of inventory, as of Thursday (February 17, 2022), the inventory of cultural paper and corrugated paper enterprises decreased slightly on a weekly basis. The implementation of the current round of price increase of cultural paper is good, the inventory is gradually moving down, the impact of double reduction and new capacity in 2021q4 is gradually digested, and the profitability is expected to hit the bottom. It is recommended that [ Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) ]: the valuation has a margin of safety, the forest land area of Laos base continues to grow, and the cost advantage and risk resistance are improved under the integration of Forest Pulp paper.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB. The exchange rate of JPY against RMB uses the central parity rate of JPY 2022 / 2 / 18 against RMB of 0.055.
