Description of target pool selection: Based on the constituent stocks of CITIC defense military industry index, we eliminate some stocks with low correlation between main business and core equipment ( Shaanxi Aerospace Power Hi-Tech Co.Ltd(600343) ), add 34 stocks highly related to military industry (such as Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) ), and finally form the core target pool of defense military industry.
Description of Fund Classification: the selection method of active fund in this model is wind open-end fund + closed-end fund – stock fund (common stock type) + mixed fund (partial stock mixed type + flexible allocation type); The selection method of passive fund is wind open-end fund + closed-end fund – stock fund (passive index type + enhanced index type) + hybrid fund (balanced hybrid type + partial debt hybrid type); The data of equity fund holdings can be obtained by adding the active and passive funds.
The proportion of positions in the whole year continued to increase, and the preference of institutional positions continued to strengthen: at the beginning of the year, the performance of some enterprises in the military industry sector was lower than expected (mainly due to the lack of market awareness of the pace of military industry expansion, resulting in high expectations). After the proportion of fund positions decreased, the 21q2-q4 military industry sector as a whole entered the stage of repair and improvement, and the proportion of positions continued to rise, To 21q4, the proportion of institutional positions increased to 5%. We believe that the proportion of institutional positions will continue to increase in 2021, thanks to the continued high prosperity of the industry.
By the end of the fourth quarter, the total market value of military holdings of active funds had reached 147.88 billion yuan, accounting for 5.24% of the total holdings of active funds, and the over allocation ratio was 2.4%. Meanwhile, the total market value of military holdings held by active + passive fund 21q4 reached 177.505 billion yuan, accounting for 4.94% of the total holdings of the fund, and the over allocation ratio was 2.10%.
Selection of target: the selection of additional fund allocation – the target of long-term growth value is favored, and the investment closely follows the change of prosperity. At the level of individual stocks, the 10 stocks with the highest shareholding proportion in the fourth quarter of the active fund are Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Tianjin 712 Communication & Broadcasting Co.Ltd(603712) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) . The top 10 companies of active fund capital inflow (position increase) are Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) . It mainly focuses on the middle and upper reaches of Baima + strong attribute main engine plant and undervalued + high performance elastic target.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the military industry sector will continue to be the preferred sector of institutional allocation under the background of high scenery (the preference of over allocation is positive), The valuation of this sector has been adjusted to be lower than the “0023%} of the historical value of {0138%} due to the fact that the” bottom “of the sector has been underestimated (for example, the valuation of this sector has been adjusted to be lower than the” 0025%} of the historical value of the sector), although it has also been lower than the “bottom” of {0138%} in the near future.
At present, there is no negative situation in the medium and long-term fundamentals of the industry, the logic of weapons and equipment volume continues to strengthen, and the progress of new models exceeds expectations. It is suggested to continue to focus on the current high cost performance stage of valuation – the field of promoting the growth rate of new models / new processes in 2022-2024, and the target with absolute return from valuation switching angle in 2023:
It is recommended to pay attention to the following related stock targets:
1. The aero-engine industry chain with high sustainability, high scenery, new models exceeding expectations and in the expansion period: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Guizhou Aviation Technical Development Co.Ltd(688239) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) ;
2. New military products market stocks with the second growth curve: Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) , Guoguang Electric Co.Ltd.Chengdu(688776) ;
3. Steady growth military electronics and missile information enterprises with high valuation and cost performance: Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , capacitors, Chengdu Zhimingda Electronics Co.Ltd(688636) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Jiayuan technology, etc;
4. Core barriers / state-owned enterprise reform host factory enterprises: Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , etc
Industry logic focuses on the four highlights of military 2022
(1) the growth rate in 2022 has strong comparative advantages; As 2022 is the first year of release of the overall new capacity of the industry, the growth rate of the revenue side will accelerate, so the second-order derivative is positive, and some sectors can have a longer growth expansion period, which has the strategic comparative advantage of the industry.
(2) new models are intensively entering the pre production stage of batch production, and enterprises in all links of the industrial chain have the possibility of performance exceeding expectations and the extension of the duration of medium and high-speed growth;
(3) the military industry is a kind of crossing varieties in the economic cycle, which has the advantage of fundamental anti risk;
(4) China’s state-owned assets reform or entering the deep-water area is expected to carry out market-oriented mechanism reform in fields other than the general assembly of non strategic weapons (excluding state-owned enterprises of strategic resources).
(5) medium term renewal of mature models (expected establishment of longer growth period).
Risk tip: the delivery of military products slowed down in the first half of the year, the pricing progress of new products was slow, and the impact of macro liquidity.
