Comments on hot events in the industry this week
\u3000\u30001. New forms of transportation: on February 16, the national online car Hailing supervision information exchange platform received a total of 704203000 orders in January, an increase of 5.3% month on month. We believe that: first, sharing travel is the future development trend, and the online car Hailing market has a broad space. Second, the online car Hailing market is growing steadily, and the demand is expected to grow rapidly after the epidemic improves. Third, the online car Hailing market pattern was dynamically adjusted, and Didi’s travel market share fell to about 70%. Fourth, the compliance process of online car Hailing is expected to accelerate, and the supply of online car Hailing capacity is expected to decline. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities related to online car hailing CR8. 2. Epidemic situation: as of 0:00 on February 20, 6067 cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly confirmed in Hong Kong, of which 12 were imported cases. First, the high incidence of covid-19 epidemic in Hong Kong has delayed the expected rhythm of China’s international air passenger transport opening. Second, in the long run, the cross-border e-commerce logistics track has good growth, further driving the demand for international aviation logistics. Third, recommend investment opportunities in the aviation logistics industry chain. It is recommended to have all cargo aircraft and occupy the advantageous freight hub, and strive to build an aviation logistics leader Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) (601156. SH); Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128. SH) and Sinotrans Limited(601598) (601598. SH) are recommended.
This week’s industry dynamic data tracking 1 Air cargo market: air cargo prices fell week on week. In January 2022, the price of air cargo from Shanghai to North America was US $10.1/kg, with a week on week ratio of – 16.39% and a year-on-year ratio of + 42.25%. 2. Air passenger transport market: China’s epidemic situation has gradually improved, and the number of flights at major airports has increased steadily this week. 3. Shipping market: in terms of bulk transportation, the price index of bulk transportation market continued to callback month on month, and the BDI index closed at 1964 points. In terms of oil transportation, oil transportation prices continued to hover at the bottom this week, and the BDTI index closed at 699 points. In terms of centralized transportation, the SCFI index closed at 4946.01, and the centralized transportation price remained high in February. In terms of domestic trade container transportation, the price of domestic trade container transportation remained high, and the PDCI index closed at 1652 points. 4. Express market: the price war continued to ease in January, and the overall share of the head company rebounded. 5. Road network traffic: near the Spring Festival, the traffic volume of Expressway in January is significantly released compared with the previous month.
The performance of the transportation industry in the capital market since the beginning of 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have increased by – 4.09% and – 5.85% respectively, and the transportation index + 1.31%; In terms of transportation sub sectors, railways and highways + 6.66%, airports + 9.87%, shipping ports – 0.94%, public transport – 5.35% and logistics – 6.62%.
The core combination shows that the core combination recommended by Galaxy transportation is S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352. SZ), Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) (603128. SH), Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) (002010. SZ). As of February 18, 2022, the core combination of Galaxy transportation in 2022 was – 10.71%, and the relative income was – 12.02%.
Risks: cross border logistics demand is less than expected, express price war, repeated covid-19 epidemic, changes in transportation policies and regulations, etc.
