Industry core view:
2022.2.14-2022.2.18: the new power industry rose by 5.53% this week, and the CSI 300 rose by 1.08% in the same period, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.45pct. It ranks first among the 31 industry sectors of Shenwan.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: according to the data disclosed by China Automobile Industry Association on February 18, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in mid January were 452000 and 431000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 133.2% and 135.8% respectively. According to the analysis of China Automobile Association, although the sales volume of new energy vehicles in January did not set a new historical record, it still continued the trend of rapid development in 2021, and the production and sales scale was much higher than that in the same period in 2021. In terms of market share, the market share of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile reached 17% in mid January. The high growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles promoted the high increase of power battery shipments. According to the data, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery output in January totaled 29.7gwh, up 146.2% year-on-year, of which ternary battery output was 10.8gwh, accounting for 36.5% of the total output, up 57.9% year-on-year; The output of lithium iron phosphate battery was 18.8gwh, accounting for 63.3% of the total output, with a year-on-year increase of 261.8%. In terms of loading volume, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume in January was 16.2gwh, an increase of 86.9% year-on-year. The loading volume of ternary battery and lithium iron phosphate battery was 7.3gwh and 8.9gwh respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.2% and 172.7% respectively. We believe that high-end models will be dominated by high nickel batteries, while low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will have more and more significant price advantages in the future. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery will be further improved in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant cathode targets. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, the price of silicon materials continued to rise this week, but the increase slowed down. The RMB quotation of the overall single crystal materials this week was about 242 yuan / kg. Most of the orders for silicon materials in February have been signed. This week, an enterprise signed a long order for February. There are not many surplus materials on the market, and the number of other new orders has decreased significantly, which has slowed down the increase of silicon material price. The output of silicon material is limited, the new capacity at the silicon wafer end continues to be released, the heat of terminal demand continues, the supply and demand mismatch, and the support of material price is sufficient. It is expected that the price of silicon material will continue to rise in March. Based on the huge potential demand of terminals in the global energy transformation environment, the photovoltaic installation volume in 2022 will still be determined by the output of the bottleneck link of the supply chain (silicon material), and the price will become the valve to adjust the supply distribution. The rise and fall of short-term product prices will not affect the high increase of the annual installed capacity. It is recommended to focus on Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. On February 18, the procurement of wind turbines for 675mw wind power projects in Gansu, Shanxi, Yunnan and other regions of Longyuan Power opened. There are 9 projects in total, and the lowest bid price is 1705 yuan / kW equivalent to the unit price of Shanghai Electric Wind Power Group Co.Ltd(688660) . The average converted unit price of the project bidding is between 1821 yuan / kW and 2217 yuan / kW. Under the background of continuous downward wind turbine prices, the national wind power construction, especially offshore wind power, which can be an important source of short-term new power supply in eastern coastal provinces, is also expected to continue to speed up. We recommend Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615) and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186).
Hydrogen energy: hydrogen is considered as an ideal clean energy in the 21st century and plays an important role in helping the Beijing Winter Olympics achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. A total of 816 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been put into use as the main transport capacity to carry out demonstration operation services in the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, which is a major milestone so far
The largest investment in international events. In Beijing and Yanqing, 312 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles used about 42.04 tons of hydrogen from February 4 to February 14. The Winter Olympics opened a new chapter in the development of hydrogen energy industry in Beijing. Beijing is actively promoting the construction of Beijing Tianjin Hebei fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster, and strive to build and form a fuel cell vehicle key parts and equipment manufacturing industry cluster at the end of the 14th five year plan. We believe that the construction of urban agglomeration will drive the development of hydrogen energy industrial chain clusters, and hydrogen energy will also play an important role in more occasions. It is recommended to focus on Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338), and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; The investment in power grid is less than expected.
