\u3000\u3000 Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) (000568)
Events
On the evening of February 20, 2022, the company issued the announcement of restricted stock incentive Grant: the board of directors of the company agreed to grant 6.9286 million restricted shares to 441 incentive objects meeting the grant conditions at the grant price of 92.71 yuan per share on December 29, 2021.
Key investment points
The granting of restricted shares is basically consistent with the previous contents
The company was approved by Luzhou state owned assets supervision and Administration Commission on December 2, 2021 and approved the equity incentive plan issued by the company on September 27, 2021, marking important progress in equity incentive of the company. Subsequently, the company announced the granting of restricted shares to the incentive objects on December 29, 2021, which made it clear that the number of participants in the first batch was 441, and the number of shares granted for the first time was 6928600 restricted shares (of which 432 core backbones held 6227700 shares).
The equity incentive plan finally implemented is basically consistent with the previous disclosure. Finally, 437 people participated in the equity incentive (4 people voluntarily gave up a total of 66000 shares), and the number of granted shares was 6862600 shares. The assessment conditions are still three points: 1. The return on net assets from 2021 to 2023 shall not be less than 22% and not less than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking enterprise; 2. Compared with 2019, the net profit growth rate from 2021 to 2023 shall not be lower than the 75th percentile of the benchmarking enterprise; 3. From 2021 to 2023, the proportion of costs and expenses in operating revenue shall not be higher than 65%. The equity incentive expense is 1.031 billion yuan, which is amortized from 2021 to 2025, that is, the amortization expense from 2021 to 2025 is 33 million yuan, 386 million yuan, 370 million yuan, 172 million yuan and 71 million yuan respectively.
Five highlights in the future when the revival is in progress
Five highlights of the company in the future: first, brand side: dual brand strategic operation and brand rejuvenation. Guojiao 1573 and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) dual brand strategy. Guojiao 1573 promotes brand influence through circle marketing such as Guojiao Hui; Propose brand rejuvenation for Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , constantly tap the historical and cultural resources of the old cellar, and enhance the influence of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) brand by creating cultural IP such as “seal collection ceremony”.
Second, product side: focus on five single products, and Guojiao and Tequ continue to make efforts. 1) Focus on high-end liquor to build national cellar 1573; 2) The mid-range liquor Tequ series bears the burden of the rise of waist products. The time-honored brands mainly do the circulation channel, and the 60th edition is currently the national group purchase channel.
Third, the price side: Guojiao follower strategy, Tequ is expected to enter the 300 yuan price band. 1) Guojiao follows the Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price increase strategy, which remains unchanged in the medium and long term, and is expected to enter the 1000 yuan price band in the future; 2) Tequ has raised its price to about 200-250 yuan and is expected to enter the price band of 300 yuan in the future.
Fourth, the channel side: the effect of brand franchise mode is remarkable, and the extensive operation has changed to fine operation. The company implements the brand franchise mode, establishes three brand franchise companies, and focuses on fine operation of products.
Fifth, regional expansion: make up for weaknesses with nationalization, continue the battle and advance from east to South at the same time. The company’s traditional advantageous regions southwest, central China and North China account for more than 85%. In 2018, the company proposed the east to South map project. The East China and South China markets ranked lower, which was inconsistent with the company’s position and there was a large gap in volume.
Profit forecast
At present, the nationalization of the company continues to advance, the goal of returning to the top three remains unchanged, the talent echelon is gradually younger, and we strive to advance to the top three in the 14th five year plan. Considering that the announcement of restricted stock grant has been issued, we expect the EPS to be 5.22/6.65/7.99 yuan from 2021 to 2023 (after diluting the share capital), and the current share price corresponding to PE is 44 / 34 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the growth of the national cellar was less than expected, and the expansion outside the province was less than expected.
