\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Event overview
On February 18, the company announced that Li Shuguang applied for resignation from the company’s director and relevant special committees under the board of directors, and Zou Tao applied for resignation from the company’s director, vice chairman and general manager. Elect director Jiang Wenge as vice chairman and appoint him as general manager. Analysis and judgment:
The management changes are finally implemented, and it is expected that the reform momentum of follow-up marketing work will be further released
In this management turnover, he served as the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group company and the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the joint stock company; Zou Tao served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee and general manager of the group company; Jiang Wenge served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company. In 2021 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) the product, price system, organization and other aspects were adjusted at the same time. The strategic direction was clear, the implementation was firm, and the reform had achieved initial results. We believe that the historical burden of this management transition has been basically handled, and young people will be ready in 2022.
The industry environment continues to improve, and the leading value is expected to gradually return
From the current industry capacity, high-end demand is relatively healthy, price upgrading trend, industry concentration trend is still continuing, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) as the absolute leading Baijiu price in the liquor industry, the future can still follow the trend of industrial expansion and steady growth.
From the perspective of competition pattern, the price of Guojiao, the main competitive product, is very firm at present. The channel thrust of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has obvious advantages in the short term. At the same time, the erosion rate of sauce and wine on the price of 1000 yuan has also been alleviated. The industry competitive environment in Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) 21 years is relatively loose, and the leading value of the industry is expected to gradually return.
The dynamic sales slightly exceeded expectations, and the brand potential was further released
Looking back to 2021, when the external economic environment was relatively weak, the company’s main brand puwu had good sales on the basis of smooth implementation of goods control and price support, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) price of new products was very high, the market feedback was good with the super high-end price belt, the series liquor was updated to tap the dividends of the sub high-end market, the channel side established the “1 + N + 2” model and gradually carried out channel reform. Therefore, we believe that the company is expected to achieve an increase of more than 15% in operating revenue on the statement side in 2021.
According to the channel research during the Spring Festival in 2022, the company has basically made a good start, and it is expected that the volume and price will rise together in 2022. Puwu’s sales have been smooth, and the price, inventory and payment collection have continued to improve, which has effectively strengthened its brand position of second in the industry and first in Luzhou flavor. In 2022, the company will continue to improve the price and position of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) in the ultra-high end and enhance the overall brand strength of the company; The series of wines have been updated. In 2022, we will focus on the upgrading of price belt and the performance of core strategic products in key regions.
Investment advice
We believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has obvious valuation advantages in the high-end Baijiu, and the internal optimization and volume price rise is expected after the change of management. In 2022, the company’s report form improved and expected to return gradually. Keeping the profit forecast unchanged, we expect the company to achieve an operating revenue of RMB 67.50/78.75/90.92 billion from 2021 to 2023, a year-on-year increase of + 17.8% / + 16.7% / + 15.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.77/28.16/33.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19.1% / + 18.5% / + 17.6%; EPS is 6.12/7.25/8.53 yuan respectively, and the closing price of 199 yuan on February 18, 2022 is 32.50/27.43/23.33 times of PE respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
① the epidemic situation continues to exceed expectations; ② Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; ③ Food safety issues.
