\u3000\u3000 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120)
Key investment points
In January, the unit price increased by 0.18 yuan month on month, and the price repair under the high base in the peak season exceeded expectations
The unit price of Yunda ticket in January was 2.62 yuan, which was 2.53 yuan after restoring the impact of the change of rookie wrapping settlement policy, with a year-on-year increase of 0.30 yuan and a month on month increase of 0.18 yuan. Compared with the peak season last year, the price continued to increase (the unit price of Yunda ticket in November last year was 2.38 yuan), and the price repair was verified steadily. Since this year, the price policy of the company’s headquarters has not been loosened. We judge that the price side of the subsequent off-season market from March to April is still optimistic. In addition, the experience of Zhejiang on the policy side has gradually expanded to the whole country. There is still time and regional double repair space in the future. The unit price of 2022 is expected to increase year-on-year.
In January, the number of orders increased by 9.1% year-on-year, and there was no worry about the growth of wrong orders during the Spring Festival
From the perspective of single volume, Yunda’s single volume in January was 1.512 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. The decline in growth rate is mainly due to the wrong period of the Spring Festival, but the excess growth of the industry is considerable (the single volume of the industry in January increased by 3.3% year-on-year). It is expected that the total single volume from January to February is expected to increase high. In terms of share, Yunda accounted for 17.2% of the market in January, with a month on month decrease of 0.68 PTS and a year-on-year increase of 0.92 PTS. We judge that driven by the rise of new business forms such as upstream live broadcast e-commerce, the high increase of package volume driven by the downward trend of package value, and the share overflow after the integration of Jitu Baishi, the single volume of the company is expected to continue to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in 2022.
Three levels and two stages of value restoration immediately enter the essential stage of profit restoration
3) we should distinguish between the three levels of post-war price control and restoration: 1) we should distinguish between the three levels of post-war price control. In the second and third quarters of this year, with the introduction of the policy, the price side gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the verification profit repair level. The corresponding stock price performance has entered the core stage, and is expected to usher in the second wave of “main rising wave”. We expect that the overall profit inflection point of Yunda will be upward in 21q4 and this year, and the single piece profit repair superposition scale will increase in 2022, and the performance may be highly flexible.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to be 1.499 billion yuan, 2.744 billion yuan and 4.039 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%, + 83.1% and + 47.2% respectively, corresponding to 36 times, 20 times and 13 times of PE respectively. Considering the leading premium, single volume scale and single piece profit, we are still optimistic about the second largest express enterprise in the industry and A-share e-commerce express leader Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . The company’s value repair space is determined and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
