\u3000\u3000 Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) (002468)
Event:
The operation of the express industry in January and the operation data of Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) January have been published.
Industry: in January 2022, the National Express service enterprises realized a business revenue of 91.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, completed a business volume of 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, a single ticket revenue of 10.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.40% and a month on month increase of 16.81%; Among them, the revenue of non local express business reached 45.590 billion yuan, the business volume reached 7.542 billion pieces, and the single ticket revenue was 6.04 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.67% and a month on month increase of 13.42%.
In terms of individual stocks, in January 2022, Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) service revenue reached 2.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.27%, business volume 989 million tickets, a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, and single ticket revenue of express service was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.19%.
Key investment points:
The market share kept rising, and the growth rate of business volume kept leading in the industry
In January 2022, the express industry achieved a business volume of 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Considering the impact of the Spring Festival, the express industry received 3.89 billion pieces from January 17 to February 6, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the cumulative delivery business volume was 4.46 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 36.94%. During the Spring Festival (January 31 to February 6), The volume of receiving and delivery business in the express industry reached 749 million, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the prosperity of industry demand rebounded. In January 2022, Shentong completed 989 million business tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, which was higher than the average growth rate of the industry for four consecutive months. The growth rate of business volume remained the industry leader, with a market share of 11.28%, a year-on-year increase of 1.35 PCTs and a month on month increase of 0.03 PCTs, reaching a new high in recent 18 months, and the market share continued to increase.
The customer structure expanded, and the single ticket income remained stable
In January 2022, the single ticket revenue of Shentong reached 2.59 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.19%. The single ticket revenue has achieved positive growth for three consecutive months; Excluding the impact of the company's rookie wrapping business settlement mode adjustment on the single ticket income of express service, the single ticket express service income of Shentong was 2.43 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.19% and a month on month decrease of 0.01 yuan. During the operation in January, Shentong actively broadened the customer structure, effectively undertook the business volume spilled during the integration of Jitu Baishi, and promoted the simultaneous rise of volume and price by optimizing the market price policy on the basis of balancing the market share and profitability.
Grasp the investment opportunities of the express industry and maintain the "buy" rating of Shentong
Looking forward to 2022, in addition to policy supervision, the head enterprises also have strong profit demands. Under the background of the stability of the demand side growth center, the capital expenditure scale of each head enterprise on the supply side will stop expanding, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue will continue to decline, and the competitive strategy of head enterprises will focus on the balance between market share and profitability. Grasp the sector investment opportunities in the express industry. With the support of the improved pattern, Shentong single ticket revenue is expected to rebound and stabilize. With the continuous improvement of capacity utilization, Shentong's cost side is expected to be continuously optimized, and its performance will be gradually repaired, ushering in greater profit and market value elasticity.
The profit forecast and investment rating adjust the profit forecast according to the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) 2021 to 2023 will be 25.308 billion yuan, 30.609 billion yuan and 32.815 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -893 million yuan, 888 million yuan and 1139 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE from 2022 to 2023 will be 15.24 and 11.88 million yuan respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
