\u3000\u3000 Tangshan Sanyou Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(600409) (600409)
Event: the company issued the announcement of 21 year performance express. In 21 years, the company achieved a revenue of 23.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 133%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 156%. Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 5.9 billion yuan in a single quarter, up + 14% year-on-year and - 2.5% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 149 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 78% and a month on month increase of - 58%.
Comments:
The selling price of main products increased significantly, and the performance in 21 years improved significantly: in 2021, China's economy recovered steadily, the prosperity of the chemical industry recovered, the selling price of the company's main products increased significantly year-on-year, and the company strengthened cost control, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in performance in 21 years. The average annual prices of soda ash, viscose staple fiber, caustic soda, PVC and silicone in the past 21 years were 2277 yuan / ton, 13364 yuan / ton, 756 yuan / ton, 9233 yuan / ton and 32047 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 47%, + 45%, + 37%, + 38% and + 70% respectively; The price difference of soda ash, viscose staple fiber and PVC was 352 yuan / ton, 5798 yuan / ton and 3594 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 776%, + 54% and + 28% respectively. Affected by the "double limit" and other policies, the prices of the company's main raw materials such as pulp, calcium carbide, silicon block, raw coal and raw salt continued to rise, the operating rate of main products decreased, resulting in the decline of production and sales, and the month on month decline of the company's Q4 single quarter performance. Looking forward to the next 22 years, with the company's projects under construction put into operation, the company's performance is expected to be further thickened.
The company's production capacity continues to expand and new projects open up growth space: at present, the annual production capacity of the company's main products is 3.4 million tons of soda ash, including 2.3 million tons in the headquarters and 1.1 million tons in Qinghai wucai soda industry; 780000 tons of viscose staple fiber; 530000 tons of caustic soda; PVC50. 50000 tons (including 70000 tons of special resin) and 200000 tons of silicone monomer. In April 21, the company announced that it planned to invest 975 million yuan to expand the 200000 t / a silicone monomer project, and the total capacity of the company's silicone monomer will reach 400000 T / A; It is proposed to invest 1.635 billion yuan to build phase I of 200000 t / a new solvent method green cellulose fiber project (the production capacity of phase I is 60000 T / a); It is proposed to invest 450 million yuan to build a cogeneration project. After the three projects are put into operation, it is expected to realize a total profit of 600 million yuan per year.
The demand for downstream photovoltaic glass continues to increase, and the company is expected to benefit as a leader in soda ash: according to Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) data, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China in 2021 was 27.76 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%. In December 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology of the people's Republic of China revised the measures for the implementation of capacity replacement in the cement glass industry, making it clear that the photovoltaic delay pressing glass can not be limited by the capacity replacement measures. As an important downstream application of soda ash, the capacity expansion of photovoltaic glass is expected to contribute to the downstream demand increment of soda ash, the supply and demand pattern of soda ash is expected to continue to improve, drive the industry boom upward, and the company's future performance is expected to further improve.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering the sharp rise in the cost of raw materials and energy of main products and the adverse impact of environmental protection policy constraints, the company's performance in 21 years was lower than expected. We believe that raw material prices and energy costs may continue to remain high, which will have an impact on the company's profitability in 22 and 23 years. Therefore, we reduce the profit forecast for 22-23 years. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 22-23 years will be 18.37 (46%) / 2.027 (45%) billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.89/0.98 yuan / share respectively. As the double leader of soda ash and viscose, we continue to be optimistic about its future development, so we maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Environmental risks; The production progress of the project is less than expected; Safety production risk; Operational risk; exchange-rate risks.
