\u3000\u3000 Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) (002120)
Event:
The operation of the express industry in January and the operation data of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) January have been published.
Industry: in January 2022, the National Express service enterprises achieved business revenue of 91.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, completed business volume of 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, single ticket revenue of 10.46 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.41%, and a month-on-month increase of 16.82%; Among them, the revenue of non local express business reached 45.590 billion yuan, the business volume reached 7.54 billion pieces, and the single ticket revenue was 6.05 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.58% and a month on month increase of 7.12%.
In terms of individual stocks, in January 2022, Yunda’s express service business revenue reached 3.957 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.02%, the completed business volume was 1.512 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, and the single ticket revenue of express service was 2.62 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.49%.
Key investment points:
The growth rate of business volume was stable, and the market share in a single month reached a record high
In January 2022, the express industry achieved a business volume of 8.77 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%. Considering the impact of the Spring Festival, the express industry received 3.89 billion pieces from January 17 to February 6, an increase of 34.1% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the cumulative delivery business volume was 4.46 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 36.94%. During the Spring Festival (January 31 to February 6), The volume of receiving and delivery business in the express industry reached 749 million, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year, and the prosperity of industry demand rebounded. In January 2022, Yunda completed 1.512 billion tickets, with a year-on-year increase of 9.09%, maintaining a stable growth. The monthly market share also exceeded the high of 17.18% in October 2020, reaching a record high of 17.24%, an increase of 0.92% year-on-year.
Single ticket revenue continued to rise, and the stability of the pattern continued to be verified
In January 2022, Yunda’s single ticket revenue reached 2.62 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49%. It has achieved positive growth in single ticket revenue for three consecutive months; Excluding the impact of the company’s rookie wrapping business settlement mode adjustment on the single ticket income of express service, the single ticket express service income of Yunda was 2.53 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.45% and a month on month increase of 7.66%. The increase of single ticket income is due to the additional spring festival service charge for “not closing during the Spring Festival”. At the same time, the reason for the increase of single ticket weight around the Spring Festival is that the price of Express single ticket has increased. In the context of the gradual transformation of the industry’s competitive strategy from price driven to value driven, Yunda’s business volume and single ticket revenue growth are leading the industry, and the simultaneous rise of volume and price promotes the release of performance flexibility.
Price increase resonates with pattern improvement, and grasp the best investment stage of the industry
The superposition pattern of policy guidance has improved, and the big turning point of the express industry has come. The rise of single ticket income of leading enterprises in varying degrees in January 2022 verifies the logic that the industry pattern is improving. With the official implementation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express delivery on March 1, 2022, the price competition strategy is expected to have failed, and the supply and demand environment of the industry has changed. As the demand growth center goes down, enterprises will rebalance their profits and market share, the single ticket price is expected to stabilize, and the single ticket profit will continue to be repaired with cost optimization. In the new stage, head express enterprises will stop capital expenditure expansion, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue will continue to decline, the supply side change signal appears, and the e-commerce express industry will switch to the stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. With the support of the improved pattern, Yunda is expected to continue the price increase logic under the background of the stable growth of business volume, the single ticket revenue continues to increase, and the profit center is expected to gradually rise.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the company’s performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) 2021 to 2023 will be 41.849 billion yuan, 50.923 billion yuan and 63.147 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.431 billion yuan, 2.668 billion yuan and 4.018 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE scores from 2021 to 2023 will be 37.51, 20.11 and 13.35 respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
