\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) (300760)
Key investment points:
The 14th five year plan clearly strengthens the construction of public health and high-quality medical resources
Since 2020, the coronavirus epidemic has become a global pandemic, highlighting the contradiction of insufficient global basic medical equipment. China’s 14th five year plan clearly proposes to strengthen the construction of public health system and high-quality medical resources, such as national medical center, National Regional Medical Center, thousand county project and so on. 2021 is the first year of China’s new medical infrastructure, and the growth rate of the medical equipment industry is expected to increase.
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) is expected to fully benefit from the new medical infrastructure
The leading companies represented by Mindray are expected to fully benefit from the new medical infrastructure: the market concentration of medical equipment is low, there are many manufacturers, there are many subdivided products with complex models, strong personalized demand, and high requirements for equipment installation, commissioning, maintenance and repair. Therefore, Mindray and other large manufacturers have obvious overall service advantages. The “SanRui” intelligent information system launched by Mindray in 2021, relying on the advantages of hardware, applies artificial intelligence and information technology to the hospital management system, greatly improving the efficiency of patient information flow. The combination of Mindray software and hardware has the advantages of differentiation and overall service in bidding. For hospitals, one-stop procurement can not only reduce the procurement cost, but also reduce the cost of follow-up management and after-sales service. It has obvious leading advantages.
Mindray is expected to obtain 27-39.9 billion new infrastructure orders by 2025
According to the preliminary calculation, the total market of new infrastructure can reach 750-100 billion, and the incremental market of medical devices will be about 150-200 billion, and the relevant construction is expected to be completed by 2025. According to the relevant procurement budget of medical equipment involved in the bidding documents of medical infrastructure in all parts of China, combined with the current accessible market share of Mindray products (20%), it is measured that the orders in the Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) equipment market can reach 29.9-39.9 billion yuan; According to the standard of ICU beds per capita in Europe and the United States, assuming the number of ICU beds required after China’s opening up, and the amount of equipment required for each ICU bed, it is measured that the order of relevant equipment of Mindray is about 27 billion; Combining the two methods, we can see that Mindray is expected to obtain 27-39.9 billion yuan of incremental orders in the future new infrastructure.
Profit forecast
We predict that from 2021 to 2023, the operating revenue will be 25.56/32.861/41.763 billion yuan respectively, the net profit will be 8.174/105.15/13.364 billion yuan respectively, the three-year CAGR will be 27.83%, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 47 / 37 / 29 times respectively. We believe that Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) covid-19 will enjoy the business cycle of global layout acceleration and China’s new infrastructure, and the performance will continue to grow steadily. According to the relative valuation and absolute valuation, considering the scarcity and global expansion ability of Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) equipment scarcity leader, the company is given a 52 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 450.00 yuan, and the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tips
The expansion of grass-roots does not meet the expectation; The influence of regional centralized mining in China; Covid-19 epidemic fluctuation; Exchange rate impact; The growth did not meet expectations; The market performance of new products is lower than expected; Influence of global political pattern, etc.
