\u3000\u3000 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) (600702)
Event: Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) released the performance express. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.80%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 114.35%. Among them, 4q21 company achieved a revenue of 1.362 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.92%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 276 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.22%. The company’s performance met market expectations.
“Shede + Tuopai” two wheel drive, nationalization on the right track. 2021 is a year for the release of shede’s management efficiency, with brilliant national achievements. We speculate that: 1) shede series achieved an income of about 3.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% +, in which taste / wisdom + crystal / shede road accounted for 60% / 25% / 15% in shede series. As the core, the rated price of taste shede gradually increased from 310 yuan at the beginning of 2021 to 380 yuan at the end of 2021, realizing the simultaneous increase of volume and price; 2) Tuopai series may realize an income of 900-1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 260%. Tuopai still has a customer base in the traditional market. After Fosun takes over and restarts Tuopai, it will gradually penetrate the traditional advantageous market through the joint expansion of core brands (93 points, reprint, T68, liuliang, etc.), traditional brands and customized brands; 3) Old wine and super high-end also contributed 400-500 million yuan to the revenue, which may double year-on-year, and improve the company’s multi price belt layout.
4q21 controls the goods and accumulates potential energy, and 1q22 has a good start. Although the company began to stop goods and control prices since October 2021, the pace of marketing and channel empowerment has not slowed down. We speculate that this may be the reason why the profit growth rate of Q4 company is lower than that of revenue, but the advantage is that the potential energy of brands and channels accumulated by the company in 2022 is large. According to the channel research, the dynamic sales of dealers in January 2022 and the Spring Festival are positive, superimposing the influence of previous goods control, The overall inventory of the company is not high, and the inventory of some channels is only 1 / 3 of the full inventory, which is much better than that in the same period last year. It is expected that 1q22 collection is expected to exceed 30% of the challenge target and usher in a good start.
The division of business management is willing to usher in the year of fine management. The restructuring of the company’s business division has been adjusted for many times. At present, four business divisions have been determined in terms of brand management, namely shede, Tuopai, Laojiu and super high-end. They can independently attract investment and operate in various regional markets, which is expected to strengthen the brand awareness of dealers, rather than only focus on promoting categories with high gross profit, and improve the ability of fine cost management and user development efficiency. At the same time, the company also provides a more flexible assessment mechanism for terminal business personnel, comprehensively considering factors such as policy implementation, price stability and cost investment, and the channel enthusiasm is expected to be improved.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: we are optimistic about the release of brand and channel potential energy after the restructuring of shede management. Through the dual brand strategy of “shede + Tuopai” under the empowerment of old wine and the channel mode of “platform operation + alliance store in store”, the company is expected to continue to occupy cities and land on the basis of refined management, improve the national layout and combine the performance express data in 2022, We lowered the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 to 1.246 billion yuan (1% lower than the previous time), maintained the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022-23 to 1.867/2.484 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 36 / 27 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic will reduce consumption intention, competition of secondary high-end Baijiu is intensified, and channel cost is not timely.
