\u3000\u3000 Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) (300035)
The event company issued an announcement to increase the capital and shares of its subsidiary Zhongke Xingcheng graphite Co., Ltd. in Gui’an new area. At the same time, it introduced Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to participate in 35% and jointly build a 100000 ton negative pole integration project. Key investment points
Joint venture binding Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , laying a solid foundation for large-scale volume
The joint venture project is the 100000 ton negative pole integration project (including graphitization) in Gui’an new area previously disclosed by the company, including 65000 tons in phase I and 35000 tons in phase II. Catl has the priority to purchase the production capacity of the project. Previously, the market worried that the company lacked the core customer protection demand of catl level, but in fact, the company focused on artificial graphite. With high cost performance, the cooperation with catl has been close and deeply recognized. Previously, only due to the production capacity bottleneck, the shipment of C was limited (C is the second largest customer of the company). This joint venture just confirms C’s long-term recognition of the company’s product and business relationship. At present, the company has planned a total capacity of more than 340000 tons of negative electrode and 290000 tons of graphitization, and the consumption of new capacity has been strongly supported.
High quality customer structure to support the consumption of new production capacity
In addition, it has cooperated with Yunnan Xinxiu Power Co., Ltd. and other leading companies, including 3000450000 tons of lithium {by} power, which have also been built in bulk in China. The customer concentration is moderate and the structure is better. While ensuring the consumption of new production capacity, it will also have relatively greater bargaining power.
Grasp the graphitized core assets, take the lead in blocking, and usher in the recovery of capability margin
Previously, the market worried that the dual control of energy consumption was completely liberalized, but in fact, the expansion of graphite production still received the control of energy consumption intensity and will not expand disorderly. It is expected that the effective production capacity of graphitized and high-quality artificial graphite negative electrode will still be in short supply in 2022. Under the dual wheel drive of power + energy storage this year, the demand for battery will continue to grow rapidly, and the negative electrode enterprises that can ensure supply and delivery will take the lead to seize the market share. The company’s 45000 ton graphitization expansion projects in Guizhou and 15000 ton graphitization expansion projects in Sichuan will be put into operation successively within the year, and the moat will continue to be deepened and widened. The negative electrode price adjustment cycle is generally more than half a year. Last year, the graphitization price increased in the middle of the year, and the cost transmission is not smooth. After the price adjustment at the end of the year, the linkage mechanism will be more flexible. The net profit per ton of 21q4 negative electrode is expected to be 5800 yuan / ton, and the self supply rate of graphitization is only 28%. Starting from Q2 in 2022, the self supply rate of graphitized equity is expected to exceed 50% and is expected to increase quarterly, which will drive the net profit per ton to continue to be revised.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company’s performance from 2021 to 2023 will reach 378 / 835 / 1276 million yuan, pe52 / 23 / 15 times, and continue to be firmly recommended.
The risk suggests that the production capacity is not up to expectations, the sales volume of electric vehicles is less than expected, and the rise of raw materials / processing fees squeezes the gross profit margin.
