\u3000\u3000 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (002821)
Matters:
The company announced the signing of a supply contract, equivalent to about 3.542 billion yuan, which will be delivered in 2022.
Ping An View:
The company is well prepared, and the expected capacity supply can meet the needs:
The company has recently signed three large orders, with a total amount equivalent to about 9.3 billion yuan, and will complete the delivery before the end of 2022. Due to the short execution time and relatively less settlement of the order in 2021, we estimate that more than 8 billion yuan in the order will be settled in 2022.
Under the cdmo mode, the supplier and the demander have maintained good cooperation and close communication for a long time, so the company has made preparations for capacity construction and production scheduling in advance for the order. Despite the large amount of newly signed orders, we believe that the company can smoothly allocate production capacity and complete new production tasks. Behind this, the accelerated landing of new production capacity, the large-scale use of continuity technology in large orders and the continuous support of outsourcing suppliers ensure the normal delivery of orders.
Strengthen capacity-building and customer acquisition to ensure the sustainable development of enterprises:
We believe that the capital market should not only focus on the performance increment brought by large orders, but also see that after the company completes the order arrangement in advance, it can invest more energy and financial resources in capacity-building and new customer acquisition, so as to further improve the certainty of long-term sustainable development.
In terms of capacity-building, the company’s chemical macromolecules, preparations, biological macromolecules and clinical cro businesses are developing rapidly. In particular, with the implementation of Tianjin small-scale nucleic acid production workshop in 2022, the scale of the company’s chemical macromolecule business is expected to increase significantly.
In terms of new customer acquisition, the company actively develops small and medium-sized customers while maintaining the cooperation between large pharmaceutical enterprises. In the past two years, the company’s development speed of European and American biotechs has been limited by the epidemic. With the recent relaxation of European and American border policies, it is expected that the company’s customer development work will achieve more results in 2022.
Raise the profit forecast and maintain the “strongly recommended” rating: in the past few years, the cdmo industry has not been affected by the fluctuations in international relations and maintained rapid growth. At present, the driving force brought by the transfer of overseas demand and the listing of new drugs in China is still strong. We remain optimistic about the industry and leading companies Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) . Based on the company’s 2021 performance forecast and newly signed orders, the company raised its profit expectation from 2021 to 2023. At the same time, considering the increase in share capital caused by the company’s issuance of H shares and exercise of over allotment rights, the EPS forecast was adjusted to 4.02, 8.98 and 9.42 yuan (formerly 4.11, 8.61 and 9.95 yuan), maintaining the “strongly recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1) if the investment and outsourcing proportion of global innovative drugs is lower than expected due to insufficient income risk ratio of innovative drugs and international political environment, the development of CMO industry will be affected; 2) The failure of drug research and development will lead to the termination of the project and the loss of corresponding orders by CMO; If the marketing of drugs is less than expected, the corresponding CMO orders will not be able to achieve large volume; 3) In case of production accidents, receiving warning letters from regulatory authorities or other situations that can not meet the needs of customers, orders and even customers may be lost; 4) The main customers are from Europe and the United States. Orders are denominated in foreign currencies. Exchange rate fluctuations will cause exchange gains and losses.
