\u3000\u3000 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (000858)
Event: the personnel adjustment of the company’s management was implemented, and Li Shuguang resigned from the relevant positions of the company’s directors and subordinates of the board of directors; Zeng Congqin served as the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the group company and the Secretary and chairman of the Party committee of the joint stock company; Zou Tao served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee and general manager of the group company; Jiang Wenge served as Deputy Secretary of the Party committee, vice chairman and general manager of the joint stock company. After the personnel adjustment is implemented, the corporate governance is expected to continue to improve and promote the steady implementation of the 14th five year plan.
In the first quarter, the mobile sales of funds were steadily promoted, and the price of puwu is expected to rise. The progress of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) payment during the Spring Festival is in line with the company’s planning objectives, basically the same as that of the same period last year, and is expected to achieve a good start. At present, the general five rating is about 970 yuan, rising steadily, and the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rating is about 1750 yuan, maintaining stability. At the end of the 21st century, the company announced that the price of puwu was increased, and the unplanned price was increased to 1089 yuan / bottle. The price of 899 yuan / bottle was maintained in the plan. The proportion of planned and unplanned quota was 3:2, and the comprehensive cost was about 969 yuan / bottle; With the gradual consumption of low-cost inventory in the early stage, the price of puwu is expected to rise further. The company’s channel inventory is benign and at a normal level. After the personnel adjustment is implemented, the executive power of the company’s products and channels is expected to be further strengthened to promote sales growth.
The company’s long-term growth certainty is high, and the configuration value appears after the valuation correction. The demand for high-end liquor terminals is strong, and the rating of Feitian Maotai is rising steadily. At present, the whole box rating has reached about 3200 yuan, opening up room for the rise of puwu. The company continues to strengthen the fine management of channels, promote the normal delivery, reduce the fluctuation of channel inventory and wholesale price, which is conducive to the improvement of channel profits and strengthen the driving force. In the medium and long term, the company continues to promote the strategy of classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) strategic layout, super high-end and improving the product price system from top to bottom. Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) strong brand power, steady and large-scale products, and the goal of the 14th five year plan is expected to be realized smoothly. Affected by the changes in personnel and the overall adjustment of Baijiu, the company’s valuation is significantly downward. At present, PE is only 27 times 22 years, which is lower than the other two high-end liquor companies Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The valuation of price increases has been enhanced, and the value of distribution has further emerged.
Slightly reduce the revenue and gross profit margin. It is predicted that the earnings per share of the company in 21-23 years will be 6.11, 7.25 and 8.51 yuan respectively (the original forecast for 21-23 years is 6.11, 7.32 and 8.55 yuan). Combined with the valuation of comparable companies, 36 times PE in 22 years is given, corresponding to the target price of 261.00 yuan, and the buy rating is maintained.
Risk warning: weak channel profit, lower price than expected, and risk of food safety events.
