\u3000\u3000 Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) (300083)
Event:
On February 18, 2022, the company released its annual report for 2021: the company's operating revenue in 2021 was 5.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 500 million yuan, turning losses into profits; The company realized a net profit of 380 million yuan, which was not attributable to the parent company, and turned losses into profits. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021 was 30.03%, with a year-on-year increase of 8.00pcts; The net interest rate is 9.45%.
The company's operating revenue in 2021q4 was 1.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.57% in a single quarter; The quarterly net profit was 9.1 billion yuan, which was returned to the parent company year-on-year; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 47 million yuan, which turned loss into profit year-on-year in a single quarter. The gross profit margin of the company in 2021q4 was 33.88%, with a quarter on quarter increase of 8.25pcts and a quarter on quarter increase of 27.47pcts; The net interest rate was 8.06%, a quarter on quarter decrease of 1.14 PCTs.
Comments:
The company has completely stripped off the business of precision structural parts, and CNC machine tools have become the only core main business. In 2021, the sales of 25900 machine tools were realized, with a year-on-year increase of 52%, driving the performance to make a significant turnaround. By the end of 2020, the company has basically completed the integration and stripping of precision structural parts business, and the CNC machine tool business is the only core business of the company. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 500 million yuan and deducted a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 380 million yuan: (1) among them, the impairment loss of credit assets was about 165 million yuan and the impairment loss of assets was about 32 million yuan, a total of 197 million yuan. Compared with the net profit attributable to the parent company of -695 million yuan and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company of -761 million yuan in 2020, the stripping of precision structural parts business has significantly improved the company's performance and achieved a significant turnaround. (2) The company accrued equity incentive expenses of about 100 million yuan in 2021 and about 40 million yuan in 2022, which decreased significantly year-on-year.
Guided by the "3-8" strategy, the company gradually realizes high-end localization, localization and import substitution. The company adheres to the "3-8" strategy as the guide, takes the path from big to strong and from strong to long-term, takes the medium and low-end as the breakthrough, and aims to expand the market share of medium and high-end, so as to finally realize the autonomy, localization and import substitution of high-end CNC machine tools. The company continues to consolidate its competitive advantage in the 3C field, promote the high-end upgrading of drilling machine products, and continue to strengthen the import substitution in the big 3C field; At the same time, we will continue to increase the investment of resources in the general market, especially technology research and development, continue to improve the market share of vertical machining center products, and lay a solid foundation for the investment of other general machine tool products. In addition, based on independent research and development, the company will continue to increase research and development investment, strive to build a machine tool research institute, increase breakthroughs in high-end machine tool platforms and core parts, and realize localization and substitution. The company has successfully developed high-end CNC machine tools such as five axis linkage CNC machine tools, gradually formed competitiveness in product fields such as five axis linkage machining center, horizontal boring and milling machining center and high-speed gantry machining center, and worked hard to promote the localization process of high-end equipment such as five axis linkage.
3C business: the company's revenue from 3C series products in 2021 was 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%; In 2021, the shipment of drilling and tapping machines exceeded 10000, and 3C has a strong leading position in the field. In 2021, the company's drilling and tapping machine products continued to penetrate core customers in the 3C field, continuously expand the customer group and product group, and improve the market share. The shipment of drilling and tapping machines exceeded 10000 in 2021. Since the establishment of the company, the drilling and tapping machine has been iterated to the seventh generation. The performance of some core products exceeds that of international first-line brands and can realize import substitution. The cumulative shipment has exceeded 80000 units, consolidating the leading position in the industry again. The company will continue to consolidate the market share of 3C field and actively explore the metal processing field of UAV, electronic cigarette, VR / AR hardware, smart home, high-end medical treatment, new energy vehicles and other related parts. In terms of market space, considering the annual demand for stock replacement of about 40000 units (smartphones, laptops and tablets) and the annual demand of about 10000 units in emerging markets (VR / AR, wearable, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , electronic cigarettes, medical devices and UAVs, etc.), the annual market scale of about 50000 units of RMB 10 billion, we expect the company's 3C business revenue of about RMB 3.272/34.39/3.613 billion in 22-24 years.
General business: the company's general business revenue in 2021 was 1.995 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92%; The company continues to make efforts in the general field, which will become the strategic focus of rapid growth of future performance. In the general field, due to the wide distribution of downstream industries, the competition of machine tool enterprises is relatively sufficient and there are few large-scale enterprises. Since the company entered the general field in 2017, relying on the technology, products, brands, market and other advantages accumulated in the 3C field, the company has copied it on a series of models in the general field. The shipment volume has doubled year after year since 2019. In 2021, the delivery volume of vertical machining centers exceeded 10000 units, consolidating the leading position in the industry. In addition to the core product Vertical Machining Center, the company has carried out multi sequence technology and product layout for general series products, including gantry machining center series, horizontal machining center series, CNC lathe series, etc., and in auto parts, automation equipment and Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , machining, mold processing, parts processing, aerospace, rail transit It is widely used in medical devices and other fields. The company estimates that the current market demand of China's vertical machining, lathe, horizontal machining and Longmen is about 100000-120000 sets / year, 100000-120000 sets / year, 4000-6000 sets / year and 3000-5000 sets / year. We expect the general machine tool business revenue of the company to be 4.190/66.26/9.133 billion yuan in 22-24 years.
The replacement of stock and the improvement of localization rate of high-end machine tools will drive the company to usher in an opportunity period of huge share improvement. The general product life of the machine tool is about 10 years, but the life of the machine tool working for a long time under heavy cutting is 7-8 years. The last sales peak of China's machine tool industry is around 2011. According to the service life and renewal cycle of about 10 years, 2020 will be the inflection point of the 10-year cycle of the machine tool industry, and will enter the starting point of renewal from 2021. China Business Industry Research Institute predicts that the scale of China's CNC machine tool industry will reach 405.6 billion yuan in 2025. The prospective industry research institute predicts that China has become the world's largest manufacturer and consumer of machine tools. It is expected that the scale of China's market will exceed 570 billion yuan in 2024. The global machine tool industry is mainly controlled by Japan, Germany and the United States. China's 18-year localization rate of high-grade CNC machine tools and 20-year CNC rate of metal cutting machine tools are only 6% and 43%, which still has great room for improvement. Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) as a leading enterprise in China, its business is mainly composed of 3C machine tools and general machine tools, and there will be a huge opportunity to improve its share in the future.
The two subsidiaries operate beautifully. Shenzhen Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) Machinery Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.320 billion yuan and a net profit of 360 million yuan in 2021; Yibin Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) Machinery Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 1.384 billion yuan and a net profit of 426 million yuan in 2021.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: as the leader of CNC machine tools in China, the company has strong leading advantages. Considering the arrival of stock replacement cycle, the rapid development of downstream VR / AR hardware, new energy vehicles, smart home and other fields, and the urgent need to improve the localization rate of high-end CNC machine tools, We maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 to be 929 million yuan and 1.313 billion yuan respectively. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 will be 1.714 billion yuan. At present, the PE corresponding to the market value of about 20.5 billion yuan is 22x / 16x / 12x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: market competition intensifies, 3C product business or technology iteration is less than expected, and the reorganization plan is suspended.
